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Bloggers are mostly bullish at the start of the week.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants: 24/7 Wall St (-) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (N) Elliot Wave Lives On (+) In the Money Maoxian Millionaire Now (-) Peridot Capitalist (-) Quant Investor (N) StockAdvisors.com Smart Money Tracker (-) Wall Street Folly WishingWealth (+)
The bull market is one year old today. In the past year the S&P 500 had gained 68%. Financials, consumer discretionary, and industrials have been the strongest sectors.
Looking forward over the next six months of the bull market, historically the S&P 500 gains an average of 5.4%. Technology, financials and consumer staples historically have been the strongest sectors and utilities and energy lag.
The poll remains moderately bullish this week.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants: 24/7 Wall St (N) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (-) Elliot Wave Lives On (N) Fallond Stock Picks (+) In the Money Learning Curve (-) Maoxian Millionaire Now (-) Peridot Capitalist (N) Quant Investor (-) StockAdvisors.com Smart Money Tracker (+) Traders-Talk (+) Wall Street Folly WishingWealth (+)
Technology, energy, and industrials remain Wall Street's favored sectors going forward. Telecom and utilities are "underweighted."
Consensus Sector Weightings
Bloggers remained bullish following February's gain.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants: 24/7 Wall St (N) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (-) Elliot Wave Lives On (N) Fallond Stock Picks (+) In the Money Learning Curve (-) Maoxian Millionaire Now (-) Peridot Capitalist (N) Quant Investor (N) Self Investors (-) StockAdvisors.com Smart Money Tracker (+) Traders-Talk (+) Wall Street Folly WishingWealth (+)
Last week the Fed raised the discount rate from 0.50% to 0.75%. Prior to 1984 the discount rate was the primary tool for rate policy, since 1984 they have used the Fed Funds rate. The current survey of economists by Bloomberg forecasts a Fed Funds rate hike in the third quarter of 2010.
Fed Target Rate
In the six months after a tightening cycle began oil has had the largest gains (average 17%). The S&P 500 gains on average 3%. Technology, health care, and materials lead the sectors and utilities, telecom, and industrials lag.
Performance Before & After a Tightening Cycle
Both the dollar and the 10-year treasury declined after the first hike. The dollar index falls 2.9% in the six months after. 10-year treasuries fall 7.6%.
Market Composite Before/After First Rate Increase
There are more bulls than bears in this week's poll.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants: 24/7 Wall St (N) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (-) Elliot Wave Lives On (N) Fallond Stock Picks (+) In the Money Learning Curve (-) Maoxian Millionaire Now (-) Peridot Capitalist (-) Quant Investor (N) StockAdvisors.com Smart Money Tracker (+) Shark Report (+) Traders-Talk (+) Wall Street Folly (N) WishingWealth (+)
The bulls outnumber the bears this week.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:
24/7 Wall St (-) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (-) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Fallond Stock Picks (+) In the Money (+) Knight Trader (N) Learning Curve (-) Maoxian Millionaire Now (-) Peridot Capitalist (N) Quant Investor (N) StockAdvisors.com (+) Smart Money Tracker (+) Shark Report (+) Traders-Talk (+) Wall Street Folly (N) WishingWealth
There are more bears than bulls in this week's poll.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants: 24/7 Wall St (-) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (-) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Fallond Stock Picks (-) In the Money Learning Curve (-) Maoxian Millionaire Now (-) Peridot Capitalist (N) Quant Investor (N) StockAdvisors.com Traders-Talk (N) Wall Street Folly WishingWealth (-)
The Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll is a survey of the web's most prominent investment bloggers, asking "What is your outlook on the S&P 500 for the next 30 days?" Conducted on a weekly basis, the poll is sent to participants each Thursday, and the results are released on Ticker Sense each Monday. The goal of this poll is to gain a consensus view on the market from the top investment bloggers -- a community that continues to grow as a valued source of investment insight. © Copyright 2009 Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment PollTicker Sense was founded and developed by analysts at Birinyi Associates. Birinyi Associates continues to own and manage all content.
