Ticker Sense

July 13th Blogger Sentiment Poll

Bloggers are split between bearish and neutral this week, leaning bearish.

Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:

24/7 Wall St (-) Ahead of the Ticker (N) Carl Futia (+) Crossing Wall Street  Dash of Insight (-) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Fallond Stock Picks (-) In the Money  Knight Trader (N) The Learning Curve (-) MaoXian  Millionaire Now! (N) Navivest (-) Peridot Capitalist (N) Smart Money Tracker (-) StockAdvisors.com  Traders Talk (-) Wall Street Folly  Wishing Wealth (-)

Is the Growth Correction Ending?

Since the middle of 2007 the S&P 500 Pure Growth index has clearly outperformed the same value index.  Between the December 2008 high and the March 2009 low the growth stocks remained relatively stable (some even gained) while most value stocks declined to make a new low.  Growth's relative strength increased significantly during that period and has since come back in line with the longer term trend.  

Stocks that had declined the most were acquired with enthusiasm as confidence returned to the market, but now the value stocks have more than likely gotten ahead of themselves and we would expect the growth play to continue.  (Note that in spite of today's 1.15% decline Google is up 88bps.)

Birinyi In the News

Laszlo Birinyi appeared on Bloomberg Television this morning to discuss second quarter earnings for the S&P 500 and earnings estimate revisions.

Click here for a link to the interview.

Monday's Market Movers

Monday's trading saw a wide disconnect between defensive stocks and commodity stocks.  The S&P 500's energy sector was down 1.16% while the consumer staples sector posted a 1.51% gain.  In all, 280 stocks advanced and 218 declined.  Below are the ten S&P sectors and their impact on the market; subscribers to Birinyi's mini-institutional service also receive details on the impact of top and bottom ten stocks in the index.  For example, PG was responsible for 15.37% of the S&P's 2.3 point gain, while BAC's decline subtracted 0.45 index points.

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July 6th Blogger Sentiment Poll

Bloggers are generally bearish at the start of the new quarter.

Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:

24/7 Wall St (-) Ahead of the Ticker (N) Carl Futia (+) Crossing Wall Street  Dash of Insight (-) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Fallond Stock Picks (-) In the Money  Knight Trader (-) The Learning Curve (-) MaoXian  Millionaire Now! (N) Navivest (+) Peridot Capitalist (N) Smart Money Tracker (-) StockAdvisors.com  Traders Talk (-) Wall Street Folly  Wishing Wealth (-)

Oil Remains Highly Correlated to the S&P 500

On a rolling 200-day basis, oil is now more correlated to the S&P than any other time in the last twenty years.  Below we picture the correlation of oil versus the S&P on both a 50-day and a 200-day basis.  As shown, the correlation has been rising since mid-2008 and is at or near the high for both time periods.  (1987 - 2007 for 50-day correlation is not pictured, previously the high was .46, currently it is .66)

June 29th Blogger Sentiment Poll

Bloggers are mostly neutral in what is expected to be a quiet week.

Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:

24/7 Wall St (N) Carl Futia (+)  Dash of Insight (-) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Fallond Stock Picks (-) In the Money  MaoXian  Millionaire Now! (N) Navivest (N) Peridot Capitalist (N) The Shark Report (N) Smart Money Tracker (-) StockAdvisors.com  Traders Talk (N) Wall Street Folly  Wishing Wealth (+)

Crude Contracts Expire Today

The last trade for the front month crude contract is today, and strange price fluctuations have often been cited as the contract nears closing.  Today oil is down over $2, in the past this kind of change might have been explained by traders going long and being forced out of their trade so as to avoid taking delivery of the oil.  If this was the case, we would expect to see the July future as an outlier among the more forward contracts.  Today this is not the case, the table below shows that oil is down across the board.

June 22nd Blogger Sentiment Poll

Most bloggers are neutral going into the week.

Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:

24/7 Wall St (N) Ahead of the Ticker (N) Carl Futia (+)  Dash of Insight (N) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Fallond Stock Picks (-) In the Money  Knight Trader (N) Learning Curve (-) MaoXian  Millionaire Now! (N) Navivest (-) Peridot Capitalist (-) The Shark Report (N) Smart Money Tracker (-) StockAdvisors.com  Traders Talk (-) Wall Street Folly

June 15th Blogger Sentiment Poll

There are more bears than bulls in this week's poll.

Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:

24/7 Wall St (-) Ahead of the Ticker (N) Carl Futia (+)  Dash of Insight (+) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Fallond Stock Picks (-) In the Money  Knight Trader (-) Learning Curve (-) MaoXian  Millionaire Now! (N) Navivest (+) Peridot Capitalist (-)  The Shark Report (N) Smart Money Tracker (-) StockAdvisors.com  Traders Talk (N) Wall Street Folly  WishingWealth (+)

Have Earnings Expectations for the S&P 500 Finally Bottomed?

Since September of 2008 we have seen 2009's YoY earnings expectations for the S&P 500 steadily decline.  You may recall that for the first half of 2008 many analysts were expecting an earnings recovery, and thus forecasting 20 - 25% growth in '09.  The severity of the crisis was obviously not understood, and as events unfolded earnings and economic estimates were likewise adjusted resulting in a 38.1% decline between 9/26/08 and 11/20/08.  

Below we charted the progression of 2009 estimates since February of 2008.  Ignoring the jump in early March (General Motors reported a wider than expected loss for Q4 08 on 2/26/09 thus decreasing the denominator), it appears on the surface that expectations are beginning to bottom and have actually seen a recent upward revision.  We would however question the significance of these recent changes since General Motors was removed on 6/3/09.  If estimates continue to rise they could provide a catalyst for the next leg up.