We never thought the results to our global crisis poll would be a contrarian indicator. Nevertheless, only two days after we asked our readers on Monday "Which global crisis poses the greatest threat to equity markets?" Israel and Hezbollah began lobbing rockets back and forth while the major indices tanked. Meanwhile, oil futures briefly topped 78 bucks per barrel after hours on Thursday.
Ironically, the Arab-Israeli conflict received only 8 percent of the votes in our poll (the full results of which are displayed below) and only had 4 percent of the votes for a long time until the crisis heated up before our eyes.
Granted, over the long term the situation in Lebanon might not pose the most severe threat to the health of the global economy, but we know now it at least poses one of the most immediate threats. If anything, the eruption of violence in the region over the past few days has made our poll question a timely one, as it has sparked lengthy discussion in the media of the nature of the oil market's "risk premium."
As you can see from the rest of the results, fears of terrorism still run high, and almost a quarter of you either were worried most about something else altogther (scary to think of what could be worse than the choices listed) or weren't worried about anything at all.
Check back Tuesday for a new Birinyi Polls question.
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