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« More on Pop Business Books | Main | Cheer Up Already. »

Earnings Season Starts Tomorrow

Third-quarter earnings season kicks off after tomorrow's close when Alcoa (AA) reports.  Below is a chart of the S&P 500 (with earnings seasons highlighted in gray) going back to the start of the bull market (we use the time period between Alcoa's report date and Wal-Mart's report date as our earnings season).  Based on our calculations, the cumulative gain of the S&P 500 during earnings season is 9.7% since October 2002, while the cumulative gain during the earnings off-season is 53.4%.  We're open to any thoughts of why this is so in the comments section.

Earningsseason1

October 09, 2006 in Market Analysis |

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Comments

Quite simply "buy on the rumour, sell on the news". The earnings releases are the news, the rumour being the all the earnings forecasts that are put out by the various market analysts, financial journalists and bloggers.

Posted by: Adrian Trezise | October 09, 2006 at 01:05 PM

Just looking at the chart, is the market in each October UP? Looks that way.

Posted by: Don | October 09, 2006 at 01:07 PM

Tend to agree!

Posted by: tony caldaro | October 09, 2006 at 08:59 PM

In a bull market (even a cyclical one) expectations can get revised upwards during earnigns season (Hey! These guys ARE profitible).

In a bear market, the opposite happens. Do the same study for 1998-2001 (non Nasdaq) or Nazz 2000-02; Or any large cap index from 1966-80

Posted by: Barry Ritholtz | October 10, 2006 at 09:57 AM

Delta Interval offers you tools, knowledge, and framework so you can become an educated investor,
making rational independent decisions. Time is mONEy. http://www.deltainterval.com/

Posted by: Delta Interval | November 02, 2006 at 03:07 PM

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  • The Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll is a survey of the web's most prominent investment bloggers, asking "What is your outlook on the S&P 500 for the next 30 days?" Conducted on a weekly basis, the poll is sent to participants each Thursday, and the results are released on Ticker Sense each Monday. The goal of this poll is to gain a consensus view on the market from the top investment bloggers -- a community that continues to grow as a valued source of investment insight. © Copyright 2013 Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll

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