With the US mid-term election date of November 7th approaching quickly, we wanted to provide an overview of what some of the Internet's top "prediction markets" have to offer in the way of odds. The first two charts below come from the Iowa Electronic Markets site (constructed by the Univesity of Iowa's Tippie College of Business) while the bottom table belongs to Tradesports.com, one of the premiere online futures markets. These results are as of around 9:30 this morning. (Click to enlarge.)
IEM Congressional Control Market:
Tradesports Republican Congressional Control Futures Contracts:
As you can see, the consensus from both markets has the Republicans maintaining Senate control while losing House control. In all cases, the probability of that taking place appears high: Tradesports users give the GOP about a 67% chance of retaining Senate control and only a 30% chance of keeping the House.
The Iowa Electronics Markets poses the question a little differently, presenting three possible outcomes: Republicans "gain", Republicans "hold", and Republicans "lose". For the House election, "gain" is defined as the Republicans winning more than 231 seats; "hold" means they have anywhere from 217-231 seats; and "lose" is defined as their winning 216 or fewer seats. For the Senate election, "gain" = 55 and above, "hold" = 51 to 55, and "lose" = 50 and below. The Iowa market currently gauges the chance of the GOP losing the House at a robust 75%, while giving them about a 70% chance of holding their position in the Senate. Both figures are close to the predictions from Tradesports.com