Follow Us!

On Bloomberg

  • Access our posts on your Bloomberg terminal: NH BLG_TICKER_SENSE

Subscribe

Newsletter Portfolio Performance

Birinyi Mailing List

  • Stay in the loop:
    Subscribe to Birinyi's free mailing list
    Email:

Online Brokers

RSS

  • Subscribe in NewsGator Online
  • Add to My Yahoo!

« DJIA Overbought / Oversold | Main | Oil vs. Oil Stocks »

Comments

Does anyone really think futures markets are prediction markets? The dictionary with its entries for 'contango' and 'backwardation' doesn't think so.

That said, if they are, then might you not note that there has not been a year-over-year nominal decline in repeat-sales housing indexes for the last thirty years? I am eyeballing the OFHEO's HPI, which is a Shiller-style index based on Fannie/Freddie data, and the minimum year-over-year nominal number I have is 0% back to '75.

My bet (and naturally my book) say that 2007 is the first. 06Q3 HPI comes out tomorrow and might even show it, but if not, I expect it by next year.

We'll see.

make that back to 1930. And, no, these futures numbers are silly fodder.

There have been numerous declines on a real basis though not nominal. Given how much higher inflation was in the past compared to today, it would be surprising if we didn't see a nominal drop in prices.

The comments to this entry are closed.

Blogger Sentiment

  • The Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll is a survey of the web's most prominent investment bloggers, asking "What is your outlook on the S&P 500 for the next 30 days?" Conducted on a weekly basis, the poll is sent to participants each Thursday, and the results are released on Ticker Sense each Monday. The goal of this poll is to gain a consensus view on the market from the top investment bloggers -- a community that continues to grow as a valued source of investment insight. © Copyright 2015 Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll

About Us

Birinyi In the News

About Ticker Sense

  • Ticker Sense was founded and developed by analysts at Birinyi Associates. Birinyi Associates continues to own and manage all content.