Sector Performance Leading Up to the Start of Bear Markets
As the major equity indices have made significant declines in recent weeks, some have speculated that we are in the early stages of a bear market. Historical precedent however, would refute that view. We recently released this report to subscribers of our Mini Institutional service which highlights the performance of the ten major sectors leading up to the start of bear markets. The table below provides the average 1, 3 and 6 month performance of each sector prior to the start of all bear markets of the S&P 500 going back to 1962. Based on page two of our report, the period which compares closest to the current market is the months leading up to the 1966 bear market, while the months prior to the 1987 bear market have the least resemblance to today.
I find averages misleading.
What is the range of returns?
What is the probability of beating T-bills during each of these scenarios?
Posted by: sean | March 16, 2007 at 09:44 PM
> the period which compares closest to the current market is the months leading up to the 1966 bear market <
Well isnt it funny that the two charts are very similar too?
[charts are from one week ago and have been fitted a bit in the time scale so that they look better...]
http://www.tradingthecharts.com/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=33890#33890
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wrong link sorry.
http://tinyurl.com/2cpagn
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