July 23rd Blogger Sentiment Poll

This week there are more bears than bulls in the poll, although earnings season seems to have sparked continued uncertainty.

Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:

24/7 Wall Street (-) Abnormal Returns  Ant & Sons (-) Alpha Trends  Big Picture  Bloggin' Wall Street  Capital Chronicle  Carl Futia (+) Confused Capitalist  ContraHour  Controlled Greed (N) Crossing Wall Street  Crowder Blog  CXO Advisory (N) Fly on the Wall  Dash of Insight (+) Day Trade Team  Daily Dose of Optimism (+) Daily Options Report  Deal Breaker  Dr. John Rutledge  Elliot Wave Lives On (+) Fallond Stock Picks (+) Fickle Trader  Fresh Trader  Global Economic Analysis  Hedgefolios  Information Arbitrage (N) In The Money  Daily Blog Watch  Jack Stevison (-) Kirk Report  Knight Trader (-) Learning Curve (-) MaoXian  ChrisPerruna.com (N) Michael Comeau  Millionaire Now (N) Naked Shorts (-) Peridot Capitalist (N) Quant Investor (N) Random Roger's Big Picture (-) SeekingAlpha  SelfInvestors  Shark Report (+) Sigma Options  Stock Advisors  ShadowTrader  Tech Trader Daily  Trade King  Trader Feed  Trader Tim  Traders-Talk (N) Ugly Chart  Wall Street Folly  WindRiver Blog  Wishing Wealth 

Comments

[Mark Young]

Well, I see that we had more Bears than Bulls in the Poll. I was neutral, because not enough of my "stuff" has turned negative to be Bearish for the month. That said, thanks to the breadth situation and the poor relative strength in the Russell, I'm looking lower for at least part of this week.

I'm pretty sure that the other polled bloggers are looking at similar, so it's not surprising that they turned a bit more Bearish. I don't think it is indicative of particularly excessive sentiment at this time of year after such a nasty expiration.

On another point, our (Traders-Talk's) T-4 indicator gave a signal. I'm thinking it's a sell, but I'm not as clear on it as on other signals. There's a chart and more explanation in my blog, for those who are interested. Basically, this is a measure of activity, and that activity is often coincident with heightened emotion. My theory is that such is highly correlated with tops and bottoms.
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?automodule=blog&blogid=18&

[Mark Young]

Just a follow-up.

The T-4 flashed what I believe to be a Buy signal last night.

Gunslingers may want to hit them immediately, but I'm inclined to give them just a little bit of room before I go buying things. The pessimism isn't nearly as high as I'd have expected on that decline.

[Mark Young]

That last T-4 Buy was suspect, and though we did get a little bounce, it wasn't anything I'd buy.

Today, we've got another T-4 signal and I think this one IS a buy. Is it marking "THE" low? Doubtful. Still, the way MarketWatch just had to inform me of a 7 point drop in GLOBEX and how such "signals lower price ahead" this morning...well, I'd say pick your spot for a long speculation.

Here's a link to the latest T-4 Chart.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=73406

One caveat: There were quite a few buyers in the Rydex Funds which bodes ill for perhaps the longer term.