Expected S&P 500 Impactors: Bottoms-up Forecasts

Based on closes as of 5/13/08, the majority of analysts covering large-cap equities expect technology stocks to move the market the most over the next six to twelve months.  The consensus price target is the average of each analyst's target price on each S&P 500 stock (currently there are over 8,000 data points).  Based on the underlying targets, analysts expect the index to gain just over 13% from its current level of 1403. 

The tech sector is expected to gain 15.48% and account for 35.4 of the S&P's expected 183 index points over the next year.  Health care and financials are expected to add 29.2 and 26.0 points and gain 18.63% and 11.20% respectively.  On another note, the tech sector is nearly the largest component in the S&P, trailing financials by only 26bps in terms of market weight.

Readers interested in more information regarding sector and group impactors, including the most and least liked stocks in each sector, may also be interested in Birinyi's Mini-institutional service.