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It is that time of year again when Wall Street publishes their outlooks for next year. So far, nine major firms did not disappoint. As of today we have collected over 3,500 pages of 2010 predictions. Below are some of the significant points.
US Market & Economic Targets
First Fed Target Rate Hike
Based on the performance of coal stocks, there were a lot of naughty children this year. They have outperformed retailers by almost 2:1.
There are more bulls than bears in this week's poll.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants: 24/7 Wall St (-) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (+) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Fallond Stock Picks (-) In the Money Knight Trader (N) Learning Curve Maoxian Millionaire Now (-) Peridot Capitalist (N) Quant Investor (N) Shark Report (+) Smart Money Tracker (-) StockAdvisors.com Traders-Talk Wall Street Folly Wishing Wealth (+)
The next FOMC rate decision is tomorrow at 2:15 PM. The current survey of economists by Bloomberg forecasts a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the second or third quarter of 2010. Like we have in the past, we analyzed how the market reacts to the beginning of a new rate cycle.
In the six months prior to the first rate increase by the Fed, crude oil historically has had the biggest gains, an average of 16%. The S&P 500 has gained an average of 3.6%. Looking at sectors, energy, technology, and consumer staples lead, while financials, telecom, and utilities lag.
In the six months after the first rate increase in a tightening cycle oil again averaged large gains (17%). The S&P 500 gains on average 3%. Technology, health care, and materials lead the sectors and utilities, telecom, and industrials lag.
Both the dollar and the 10 year treasury had declined both before and after the first hike. The dollar index falls 0.3% in the six months before the increase and 2.9% in the six months after. 10-year treasuries fall 0.8% and 7.6% during the same periods.
This week's poll is slightly bullish.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants: 24/7 Wall St (N) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (+) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Fallond Stock Picks (-) In the Money Knight Trader (N) Learning Curve (-) Maoxian Millionaire Now (-) Peridot Capitalist (N) Quant Investor (N) Shark Report (+) Smart Money Tracker (-) StockAdvisors.com Traders-Talk (N) Wall Street Folly Wishing Wealth (+)
Bulls and bears are divided this week.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants: 24/7 Wall St Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (+) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Fallond Stock Picks (-) In the Money Learning Curve (-) Maoxian Millionaire Now (-) Peridot Capitalist (N) Quant Investor (N) Smart Money Tracker (-) StockAdvisors.com Wall Street Folly Wishing Wealth (+)
The S&P 500 has staged an impressive recovery off its March 9th low and today is testing a key Fibonacci retracement level. While their usefulness is questionable, these prices do sometimes come in to play and recent resistance is worth pointing out. Subscribers to Fibonacci projections and retracements believe that important resistance and support levels can be found by using identifying important peaks and troughs.
Below we highlight the retracement prices based on the 10/9/07 high and the 3/9/09 low for the S&P 500. The 50% level, indicated in thick blue, is said to be a key level and often heavy resistance, shown on this chart at 1120.84.
The Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll is a survey of the web's most prominent investment bloggers, asking "What is your outlook on the S&P 500 for the next 30 days?" Conducted on a weekly basis, the poll is sent to participants each Thursday, and the results are released on Ticker Sense each Monday. The goal of this poll is to gain a consensus view on the market from the top investment bloggers -- a community that continues to grow as a valued source of investment insight. © Copyright 2012 Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll
Ticker Sense was founded and developed by analysts at Birinyi Associates. Birinyi Associates continues to own and manage all content.
