Ticker Sense

The Beginning of a Tightening Cycle?

Last week the Fed raised the discount rate from 0.50% to 0.75%. Prior to 1984 the discount rate was the primary tool for rate policy, since 1984 they have used the Fed Funds rate. The current survey of economists by Bloomberg forecasts a Fed Funds rate hike in the third quarter of 2010.

Fed Target Rate

 

In the six months after a tightening cycle began oil has had the largest gains (average 17%). The S&P 500 gains on average 3%. Technology, health care, and materials lead the sectors and utilities, telecom, and industrials lag.

Performance Before & After a Tightening Cycle

Both the dollar and the 10-year treasury declined after the first hike. The dollar index falls 2.9% in the six months after. 10-year treasuries fall 7.6%.

Market Composite Before/After First Rate Increase

 

 

February 22nd Blogger Sentiment Poll

There are more bulls than bears in this week's poll.

 

 

Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:

24/7 Wall St (N) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (-) Elliot Wave Lives On (N) Fallond Stock Picks (+) In the Money  Learning Curve (-) Maoxian  Millionaire Now (-) Peridot Capitalist (-) Quant Investor (N) StockAdvisors.com  Smart Money Tracker (+) Shark Report (+) Traders-Talk (+) Wall Street Folly (N) WishingWealth (+)

Birinyi in the News - CNBC

Laszlo Birinyi will appear on CNBC this afternoon at 4:00 to discuss the Discount Rate and possible implications for US markets.  Tune in to CNBC at the close to watch the live interview with Maria Bartiromo.   
 

February 16th Blogger Sentiment Poll

The bulls outnumber the bears this week.  

 

Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:

24/7 Wall St (-) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (-) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Fallond Stock Picks (+) In the Money (+) Knight Trader (N) Learning Curve (-) Maoxian  Millionaire Now (-) Peridot Capitalist (N) Quant Investor (N) StockAdvisors.com (+) Smart Money Tracker (+) Shark Report (+) Traders-Talk (+) Wall Street Folly (N) WishingWealth 

February 8th Blogger Sentiment Poll

There are more bears than bulls in this week's poll.

 

 

Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:

24/7 Wall St (-) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (-) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Fallond Stock Picks (-) In the Money  Learning Curve (-) Maoxian  Millionaire Now (-) Peridot Capitalist (N) Quant Investor (N) StockAdvisors.com  Traders-Talk (N) Wall Street Folly  WishingWealth (-)

Birinyi Featured in the WSJ

This morning's Abreast of the Market column featured several reports released by Birinyi Associates over the last several months.   

Click here for the full text.

February 1st Blogger Sentment Poll

There are more bears than bulls in this week's poll.

 

 

Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:

24/7 Wall St (-) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (N) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Fallond Stock Picks (-) In the Money  Learning Curve (-) Maoxian  Millionaire Now (-) Peridot Capitalist (N) Quant Investor (N) Smart Money Tracker (+) StockAdvisors.com  Traders-Talk (-) Wall Street Folly WishingWealth (-)