Ticker Sense

Birinyi's Rueckert on CNBC Discussing Trading Buys

Birinyi in the News

Birinyi Associates' Cleve Rueckert will appear on CNBC today at 3:40pm to discuss the current stock market correction and investment opportunities it presents.   

Move Over Microsoft: Apple's Rise to the Top

It's official,  Apple has overtaken Microsoft as the largest public technology company in the country.  As of the close on 5/26/10 Apple's market capitalization stands at $222bln while Microsoft's is slightly less at $219bln.  

Below we highlight Apple's rise from a small $4.65bln company in 2001 to one of the most innovative and successful companies in the world.  Interestingly, of these 10 companies only two (Apple and Google) have gained in value since 2000 (or the IPO in the case of Google and Visa).

 

May 24th Blogger Sentiment Poll

There are more bears than bulls in this week's poll.

 

 

Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:

24/7 Wall St (-) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (N) Elliot Wave Lives On (+) Fallond Stock Picks (-) In the Money  Learning Curve (-) Maoxian  Millionaire Now (-) Peridot Capitalist (+) Quant Investor (+) StockAdvisors.com  Smart Money Tracker (+) Wall Street Folly  Wishing Wealth (-)

Most Oversold Since...

Today the S&P 500 traded down to a low of 1076.12, that's 8.2% below (3 standard deviations!) the 50-day moving average.  In February the S&P reached similar levels intra day on 2/5, and then again on 5/6, but each time the market rallied back to close above that 3 standard deviation threshold.  

The last time we closed this low was during the Lehman Brothers sell-off in 2008, but there is a fundamental difference between then and now.  When the market began to fall apart in September 2008 we were already in a clearly defined downtrend (shown in the charts below).  Currently the S&P is in a very clear and significant uptrend.  When using these overbought and oversold tools momentum is hugely important.  In any oversold market it is nearly impossible to call the bottom, but the case for a significant bounce back to the 50-day average is very good.

 

 

Oil is Oversold - But Buy the Stocks

Yesterday Birinyi Associates distributed a research report highlighting the fact that oil is more oversold than any period in the last year.  Based on our analysis, oil posts a gain over the next six months 60% of the time, and energy stocks are up 84% with an average gain of 6% across all periods.

  

 

We were invited onto CNBC to discuss this report, click the image below to watch the clip.

Birinyi In the News

 

Birinyi Associates' Cleve Rueckert will appear on CNBC's Squawk on the Street today at 9:50am to discuss oil and energy stocks.

International Index Returns Adjusted for Currency

As of Friday's close there is no doubt that Europe was a bad place to invest this year.  The Euro STOXX 50, Europe's bellwether index, is down 11.17%, France's CAC 40 is down 9.55% and Spain's IBEX 35 is down 21.99%.  In fact, the performance breakdown by region below shows that North America is the only area posting gains across the board.  

If we take the analysis one step further and look at these same indices in terms of currency the results are even more shocking.  In US Dollar terms the STOXX 50 is down 22.96% and Spain is down 32.38%.  The Nikkei 225, which is down for the year in both US Dollars and Japanese Yen has posted an impressive 14.77% gain in terms of Euros, but selling Euros to buy Canadian stocks yielded the best results: a 19.52% return.

  

May 17th Blogger Sentiment Poll.

There are still more bulls than bears in this week's poll.

 

 

Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:

24/7 Wall St (-) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (N) Elliot Wave Lives On (+) Learning Curve (-) Maoxian  Millionaire Now (-) Peridot Capitalist (+) Quant Investor (N) StockAdvisors.com  Smart Money Tracker (+) Traders-Talk (+) Wishing Wealth (-)

Key Pre-Market Events: May 17, 2010