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Yesterday Birinyi Associates distributed a research report highlighting the fact that oil is more oversold than any period in the last year. Based on our analysis, oil posts a gain over the next six months 60% of the time, and energy stocks are up 84% with an average gain of 6% across all periods.
We were invited onto CNBC to discuss this report, click the image below to watch the clip.
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The Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll is a survey of the web's most prominent investment bloggers, asking "What is your outlook on the S&P 500 for the next 30 days?" Conducted on a weekly basis, the poll is sent to participants each Thursday, and the results are released on Ticker Sense each Monday. The goal of this poll is to gain a consensus view on the market from the top investment bloggers -- a community that continues to grow as a valued source of investment insight. © Copyright 2012 Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll
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Many of the major indexes are nearing (or have moved into) oversold territory. Couple this with a few key sectors in extreme short-term oversold conditions and quite a few unclosed gaps on the upside and I the probability leans more towards the bulls over the short-term (1-3 days). Of course, as we all know, there are no guarantees in trading. Just using Mr. Probability in my favor.
The higher open today allowed me to take off the three positions that I established yesterday. I would have preferred a move that closed the gap, but all three pierced my underlying support levels so I decided it was best to go ahead and take my profits off the table.
Bought more USO - just could not resist the short=term 'very oversold' nature of the underlying.
Posted by: Andy Crowder | May 18, 2010 at 03:59 PM