Ticker Sense

September After A Summer Slide

The S&P 500 is down 9.4% since the beginning of June, making 2011 the worst June through August performance since 2002.  On average, since 1962 following a 5% decline during the summer, September continues to be weak.  On the other hand, the 4th quarter tends to be strong with the market trading higher from the beginning of October through the end of the year 78% of the time.

 

The Market: No Longer Oversold

The S&P 500 is back within the lower bound of its trading envelope.  All of the sectors have also returned to "neutral."

 
 
Click here for an explaination of the Sector Timing Model.

August 29th Blogger Sentiment Poll

 

 

Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:

24/7 Wall St (-) The Aleph Blog (-) Biiwii (+) Bruce Krasting  BullBear Trading (+) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (N) Dividend Growth Investor (+) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Expected Returns  Fallond Stock Picks (-) Global Economic Intersection (N) GEI – Investing Blog (N) Humble Student of the Markets (-) In the Money  Learning Curve (+) MaoXian  Night Owl Trader (+) The Mess That Greenspan Made  Oil Trader’s Blog (-) Peridot Capitalist (N) Prometheus Market Insight  Quant Investor (N) Shanky’s Tech Blog (N) Short Takes  Smart Money Tracker (+) StockAdvisors.com  Traders-Talk  ValuEngine  ValuePlays  VIX and More (N) Wall St. Cheat Sheet  Wall Street Folly  Wishing Wealth  Zentrader (-)

The Real "New Normal"

The high of the day on the 3-month T-Bill yield is 0.000%.  Yields have been in negative territory all day.

 

Hurricane Irene Appears to Have Already Knocked Out NYC's Website

 

Apple After Steve Jobs: What Side Are You On?

Apple's Steve Jobs announced he would be resigning as CEO of the company yesterday evening but would like to stay on as chairman of the board.   AAPL traded down over 5.5% on that news in post-trading yesterday but has recovered and is now only down 2.4% from yesterday's close.  This morning, about every sell side analyst weighed in.

• "Apple should be bought on weakness buy long term investors."  Reiterates "buy" rating. - Sterne Agee
• "We reiterate, without hesitation, our "overweight" rating on shares of AAPL."  Shares are "overweight" rated with a $600 price target.  - Piper Jaffray
• "Investors should buy on dips in share price." Price target lowered 4% to $445 from $465 but maintains "outperform" rating.  - BMO Capital
• "Job's resignation unlikely to disrupt Apple's business.  Share weakness could create attractive entry point." Keeps "overweight" rating and a price target of $525.  - JPMorgan
• "Apple weakness is a buying opportunity."  Shares are "outperform" rated with a $510 price target. - Sanford Bernstein
• New Apple CEO "more than capable."  Maintains its 2011 estimates and reiterates an "outperform" rating on the stock - Wells Fargo
• "Apple still likely to post strong top-line and bottom-line growth." Maintains $485 price target and "outperform" rating. - R.W. Baird
• "Resignation does not change Apple's long-term fundamentals."  Sees no direct risk to earnings and reiterates its "Conviction Buy" rating. - Goldman Sachs
• "Use any Apple weakness as a buying opportunity given strong fundamentals." Shares are "buy" rated with a $510 price target - UBS
• "Apple weakness creates a buying opportunity.  Resignation will have little impact on the company's business."  Maintains "outperform" rating on the shares. - William Blair
• "Apple Jobs resignation not entirely unexpected.  May face long-term earnings risk." Maintains a $500 price target and a "buy" rating on the stock. - Deutsche Bank

Overall, the sentiment tends be bullish.  Would you be a buyer AAPL here?

Stock Correlation Reaches a Record...

Birinyi Associates' S&P 500 correlation data was used in a story by the Huffington Post yesterday.  Click here for the article.

Role Reversal

Intel is currently yielding 4.28%, higher than 4.25% yield on ConEdison.  This is first time since INTC began paying a dividend in 1992 that this has ever occurred.

 

US Buybacks At the Highest Level Since October 2008

Click below to listen to Birinyi Associates' Rob Leiphart discuss the current trends in share repurchases with Pimm Fox on Bloomberg Radio.

Birinyi's Leiphart Discusses Stock Buy-Backs - Bloomberg Radio

 

It Finally Happened...

The gold ETF, GLD, has finally overtaken the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as the largest exchange traded fund.  The market of SPY is now $74.7 billion versus GLD's market cap $78.5 billion.