The MSCI World index fell last week, entering a 20% decline or “bear market.” The index is down 22.5% from its high on May 2nd. If the index follows its average decline the market will fall an additional 9.2% over 76 days eventually bottoming on December 6th.
Analyzing the individual global equity markets, many have already entered “bear markets.” Europe’s Stoxx 600 is down 26.2% from its peak, China is down 22.8%, France is down 33.1%, Germany is down 32.6%, Hong Kong is down 28.3%, India is down 24.6%, Japan is down 21.5%, Russia is down 25.3% and South Korea is down 25.4%.
Not surprisingly the central players in the debt crisis have suffered the most. Greek equities are down 51.6% from their peak, Ireland is down 32.2%, Italy is down 41.9% and Spain is down 31.3%.
The equity markets in the United Kingdom, Canada, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and the US remain in bull markets, albeit in severe corrections.
The S&P 500 is currently down 17.2% from its high on April 29th. The index would need to close below 1,091 to enter a 20% decline.