Ticker Sense

Global Equity Index Enters a 20% Decline

The MSCI World index fell last week, entering a 20% decline or “bear market.”  The index is down 22.5% from its high on May 2^nd.  If the index follows its average decline the market will fall an additional 9.2% over 76 days eventually bottoming on December 6^th.

 

Analyzing the individual global equity markets, many have already entered “bear markets.”  Europe’s Stoxx 600 is down 26.2% from its peak, China is down 22.8%, France is down 33.1%, Germany is down 32.6%, Hong Kong is down 28.3%, India is down 24.6%, Japan is down 21.5%, Russia is down 25.3% and South Korea is down 25.4%.   

Not surprisingly the central players in the debt crisis have suffered the most.  Greek equities are down 51.6% from their peak, Ireland is down 32.2%, Italy is down 41.9% and Spain is down 31.3%.  

The equity markets in the United Kingdom, Canada, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and the US remain in bull markets, albeit in severe corrections.  

The S&P 500 is currently down 17.2% from its high on April 29^th.  The index would need to close below 1,091 to enter a 20% decline. 

 

September 26th Blogger Sentiment Poll

 

 

Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:

24/7 Wall St (-) The Aleph Blog (-) Biiwii (-) Bruce Krasting  BullBear Trading  Carl Futia (-) Dash of Insight (-) Dividend Growth Investor (+) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Expected Returns (+)  Fallond Stock Picks (-) Global Economic Intersection (N) GEI – Investing Blog (N) Humble Student of the Markets (-) In the Money  Learning Curve (-) MaoXian  Night Owl Trader (+) The Mess That Greenspan Made  Oil Trader’s Blog (+) Peridot Capitalist (+) Prometheus Market Insight  Quant Investor  Shanky’s Tech Blog (-) Short Takes (-) Smart Money Tracker (-) StockAdvisors.com  Traders-Talk  ValuEngine  ValuePlays  VIX and More (N) Wall St. Cheat Sheet  Wall Street Folly  Wishing Wealth (-) Zentrader (-)

Market and Sector "Heat Map"

Below is what we like to refer to as our "heat map" or "tetris chart," which illustrates the 10% filter we posted yesterday.  As we mentioned, the S&P 500, the consumer staples sector and the telecom sector remain in 10% declines. 

 

Laszlo Birinyi on CNBC's Closing Bell Yesterday Afternoon

  

Most Sectors Recover, Staples and Telecom Remain in 10% Declines

All of the S&P 500 large cap sectors have entered 10% rallies except for staples and telecom.  Staples are currently up 8.0% from their bottom on 8/10, while telecom is up 6.9% from its bottom on 8/8.  Tech and utilities have had the largest gain among the rallying sectors both up over 12.5%. 

 
The S&P 500 remains in a 10% decline that has taken the index down as much as 17.9% from its high on 4/29.  The market has recovered 7.6% since its bottom on 8/8.

Laszlo Birinyi on Bloomberg TV

Watch Laszlo Birinyi's interview on Bloomberg TV at the Bloomebrg Markets 50 Summit in NYC last week.

 

September 19th Blogger Sentiment Poll

 

 

Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:

24/7 Wall St (-) The Aleph Blog (-) Biiwii (N) Bruce Krasting  BullBear Trading (N) Carl Futia (-) Dash of Insight (-) Dividend Growth Investor (+) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Expected Returns (N)  Fallond Stock Picks (+) Global Economic Intersection (N) GEI – Investing Blog (-) Humble Student of the Markets (-) In the Money  Learning Curve  MaoXian  Night Owl Trader (+) The Mess That Greenspan Made  Oil Trader’s Blog (N) Peridot Capitalist (N) Prometheus Market Insight  Quant Investor (N) Shanky’s Tech Blog (N) Short Takes (-) Smart Money Tracker (-) StockAdvisors.com  Traders-Talk  ValuEngine  ValuePlays  VIX and More (-) Wall St. Cheat Sheet  Wall Street Folly  Wishing Wealth  Zentrader (+)

Watch Laszlo Birinyi's Appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box

 

Birinyi Sees Stock Bull Run Intact as Apple Overshadows Greece

Laszlo Birinyi was interviewed for a story that was published on Bloomberg this morning.  Click here for a link to the story. 

 

Laszlo will also be speaking at the Bloomberg Markets 50 Summit in New York City on September 15th.  He will be on a panel discussing our outlook for 2012 at 12:30pm.  This panel will be webcast free of charge, for more information or to register click here.

ETF Volume Reaches High

A note from Birinyi Associates was featured in a WSJ article last week: ETFs Continued World Take Over in August.  Click here for a link to the story on the Wall Street Journal's website.