We don't usually delve into commodity analysis, but recently some Wall Street strategists and technicians have suggested that the decline in copper (referring to it as Dr. Copper) is an ominous sign for the economy and the market. The thinking goes that the decline in copper represents a slowing in the economy and hence the equity markets.
However, the empirical evidence does not support “Dr. Copper’s” ability of forecasting the economy nor the equity markets.
Currently copper is down 6.32% from the end of February.1 Since 1988 there have been 32 declines of at least 6%. Three months after a 6% decline in copper the economy, as measured by industrial production, is up ½ per cent 78% of the time (25 out of 32) while the S&P 500 gains 2.59%, on average.