Ticker Sense

International Equity Index Returns

The chart below highlights year-to-date returns (not total return) for 46 different international equity indices.  As shown, South Africa's FTSE/JSE Africa All Shares index is leading the group; up 8.5%.  Canada's S&P/TSX Composite is a close second, up 8.0% for the year.  The worst performer this year has been China's Shanghai Composite; down 46% its decline is almost double the Philippines All Share index which is down 24.8%.  As shown, the US sits in the middle of the group; down 7.37% for the year.

U.S. Oil Import Breakdown by Country and Company

The United States oil imports average 5.6 million barrels per day in October.  The charts below detail oil imports in barrels per day by American oil companies and where the oil came from.  Exxon Mobil was the country's largest oil importer (21.3% of the total), followed closely by ConocoPhillips (20.9% of the total).  Most of the country's oil came from Mexico (21.1% of the total) and the second most from Canada (15.8% of the total).

International Equity Returns (2007 Year to Date)

Below we present the 2007 return of eighty different international equity indices through 11/26/07.  China has been the best performer, returning 135% with the Ukraine a close second.  Venezuela and Ireland have been the worst performers, down 28.04% and 29.89% respectively.

Fifty Largest World-Wide Equity Moves

Below we show the stocks that have moved the most so far this year.  Bindura Nickel Corporation of Zimbabwe is up the most (257,964%), and Consird SA Targoviste is down the most (-99.9%).  It is notable that on a strictly year-to-date and percentage basis, only 8 of the top 25 stocks are incorporated in Asia, while 9 are incorporated in Eastern Europe.  US equities are highlighted.

 

Global ETF Overbought/Oversold

Below we highlight some of the global ETF that have had large moves recently versus their "normal trading range."  The range is highlighted as the red line, the bounds for each ETF represent theoretical highs and lows, while the arrow is the ETF's closing price as of 9/24.

To receive this report daily, including the most extreme S&P 500 and 400 names, try the Birinyi Mini-Institutional Service.

International Snapshot

Below we feature selected international equity indices with their current and estimated P/E ratios.  The US and Japanese stocks have had the most stable P/Es over the last year, while other world equities have had increasing P/E ratios over the same time period.

Correlation of Global Equity Indices

Below we show the one year correlation of selected global equity indices with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and how it has changed over the past ten years.  Figures for the chart are calculated in the same way as a moving average, think of it as moving correlation.  If the illustration is too busy or confusing, the table highlights the current correlation as it appears at the end of the chart.  With the current correlation figures we also include the change in correlation since the bull market in US stocks began. 

As we would expect, the S&P 500 is, and has been, most correlated to the Dow over the entire period.  Most recently Mexico and Brazil have undergone the largest increase in correlation, while the Asian markets remain largely uncorrelated to the US. 

The above table and figures are one year correlation numbers.  Shown below is a matrix of the same world indices and how they are correlated to one-another.  The correlation numbers shown in the matrix are since 3/3/03, the beginning of the bull market in the MSCI World Index.

 

STOXX Extremes

Recently we set up a database to analyze European stocks and their movements.  Below we display both the STOXX 600 and the STOXX 50, and the names that are most above and most below their 50-day moving averages.  In addition to moving averages we provide Moving Average Envelope (5% bands) and Trading Envelope (standard deviation bands).  These ranges are indicated as a percentage: ie. how far each stock is from its boundary.

 

Global ETF Overbought/Oversold

Below we feature a familiar Overbought/Oversold analysis for selected global ETFs.  For those who may not be familiar with the chart, the blue range (with extremes at each end) represents the theoretical high and low for each ETF.  Theoretical highs and lows adds, or subtracts, the greatest standard deviation the ETF has traded from its 50-day moving average in the last year to its current 50-day moving average.  The thick red line represents the normal trading range (one standard deviation above and below the 50-day moving average).  The current price is shown and represented by an arrow, the price five days ago is represented by the red dot.

This information is processed for a variety of large cap names and ETFs every morning for Birinyi Mini Institutional clients.

 

Global Returns and P/E Ratios

Revisiting a chart from November of 2006 we show below the change in selected world equity indices versus the change in P/E ratio over the same time.  Changes are calculated beginning on March 12, 2003 (the start of the current bull market of the MSCI World Market Index) through the present.  In most cases the P/E ratios have continued to decrease.  (Changes in P/E are indicated by vertical lines in the chart.  The top of the line is the P/E in 2003, while the circle shows the current level.) 

We continue to view decreasing P/E coupled with increasing prices as a very positive sign for the value of world markets in general.  India has shown the largest increase in P/E, while China has remained atop the list.  We found it interesting that despite large gains in Russia, South Africa and Mexico, their P/E ratios remain relatively low. 

Each country's major index is also listed with its iShares ETF, or another ETF if iShares does not provide one.