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After yesterday's unprecedented move in the US markets there were, surprisingly, several stocks that were down. The largest percentage gainers and losers are highlighted below, but there was also a direct correlation between the largest movers yesterday and other group of stocks, suggesting further price action. Subscribe to Birinyi's Mini-Institutional service for more detailed information.
As part of a new earnings season series Birinyi Associates will publish analysis of all the important S&P 500 stocks' earnings estimates and how they trade after reporting. Johnson and Johnson reports tomorrow morning, how does it typically trade after a report? Do listed companies that beat before the open and gap up 5% continue higher or sell off during the trading day? Instead of spending hours modeling EPS estimates, Birinyi Associates listens to the market and provides trading strategies rooted in historical fact.
Intel reports tomorrow after the close, traders should use the same strategy regardless of the report (beat or miss).
These stocks typically gap down 5% or more on an earnings miss and trade lower throughout the day. Subscribe to Birinyi's mini-institutional service to receive daily and weekly updates on upcoming earnings and how to prepare your portfolio ahead of time.
September 29th was the day we view as having begun the market mess that characterized the beginning of the month. The S&P 500 was down 8.8% that day, sending the market into a further tailspin over the next two weeks. The markets were up only one day out of ten, and the S&P was down over 25%. Every member of the S&P 500 was lower during that period, below we highlight the stocks that were down the least and those that were down the most. CME posted the smallest decline, down only 1.47%, while GGP was down the most at 71.73% after cutting its dividend. With many expecting the market to snap back very quickly, some of these stocks could emerge as market leaders, while others may recoup losses.
After the worst week in stocks, at least since the Dow 30 has been calculated in its present form, we highlight below some of the S&P 1500 stocks that were actually up last week. As shown, there were no stocks that were up on above average weekly volume, but there were several stocks that were up on below average weekly volume. The stocks shown below as being down were not necessarily down the most, but were down the most out of the stocks trading above average weekly volume.
Below we highlight some of the week's activity looking at stocks that were up or down on heavy and light volume.
At the end of a short but volatile week we looked at some of the stocks that had large moves on above average volume (this week we omitted those stocks with light volume because it was a short week). Below we show the stocks that were both up and down strongly, sorted on percent. Many of the stocks that were up are either acquisition targets or smaller stocks, PMI for example where a 20% move equates to a $0.72 gain. There were however real winners, most notably ICE, BKE and CBT.
On the right hand side, JOYG was down sharply on the week after missing earnings by 7 cents on Wednesday. ABM was another notable decliner on huge volume after its 8 cent earnings miss wiped out a year's gain on a seemingly steady uptrend.
Below we highlight the 30 Dow members with respect to their various trading ranges. After the recent volatility in the markets (S&P 500 +2.9% on Tuesday, -1.8% today) some of these stocks are on the move. BAC had traded at its theoretical high of $34 and has declined over the last five days into it "normal" range. XOM continues to show weakness as it is 4.7% below the lower end of its range while JNJ is approaching its theoretical high.
(Click on the image for a PDF version and explanation.)
Below we highlight the best and worst performing US equities so far this year. As shown, most of the winners fall under the "Micro-Cap" category, with WLT and MMR being the only gainers with over $1b in capitalization. The losers include several former billion dollar companies, ABK and FMD probably the most notable.
MBRK, MiddleBrook Biopharmaceuticals, headquartered in Germantown, MD has been the best performing US stock this year, up 255%. KERX, Keryx Pharmaceuticals, headquartered in New York, NY has been the worst performing US stock, down 94.5% year to date.
Below we present one of Birinyi's familiar indicators, an analysis of stocks that are either overbought, oversold or within their normal trading range. The blue range shown by the indicators below represents a stock's normal trading range, which is one standard deviation above and below its 50-day moving average. The extremes shown in the chart represent the maximum and minimum 50-day spread, or the greatest difference between the price and 50-day moving average over the last year.
Currently Wal-Mart is at its "theoretical high," meaning that the stock is the most overbought it has been in the last year. GE and BAC on the other hand are near their theoretical lows (or the most oversold they have been within the last year). CVX, DD, JNJ, PG, and XOM are overbought; DIS, GM, and PFE are oversold.
The Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll is a survey of the web's most prominent investment bloggers, asking "What is your outlook on the S&P 500 for the next 30 days?" Conducted on a weekly basis, the poll is sent to participants each Thursday, and the results are released on Ticker Sense each Monday. The goal of this poll is to gain a consensus view on the market from the top investment bloggers -- a community that continues to grow as a valued source of investment insight. © Copyright 2009 Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment PollTicker Sense was founded and developed by analysts at Birinyi Associates. Birinyi Associates continues to own and manage all content.
