Access our posts on your Bloomberg terminal: NH BLG_TICKER_SENSE 
| Stay in the loop: |
| Subscribe to Birinyi's free mailing list |
Search Ticker Sense
Search Investment Blog Network
« S&P 500 P/E Ratio | Main | Putting Things In Perspective »
While we are well aware of the arguments that government statistics underestimate the actual level of price changes in the economy, the charts below make us wonder whether or not the market is just maybe overreacting a little too much to the current levels of inflation. On a historical basis, headline CPI readings are generally inline with the average since 1980. The core reading is even more subdued, as it is remains near all time lows.
The comments to this entry are closed.
The Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll is a survey of the web's most prominent investment bloggers, asking "What is your outlook on the S&P 500 for the next 30 days?" Conducted on a weekly basis, the poll is sent to participants each Thursday, and the results are released on Ticker Sense each Monday. The goal of this poll is to gain a consensus view on the market from the top investment bloggers -- a community that continues to grow as a valued source of investment insight. © Copyright 2015 Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll
Ticker Sense was founded and developed by analysts at Birinyi Associates. Birinyi Associates continues to own and manage all content.
See the 30 year mortgage chart over 35 years -- very instructive also.
Posted by: Barry Ritholtz | June 14, 2006 at 01:57 PM
You also need to look at the FIG (Future Inflation Gauge), and the ECRI's industrial long leading indicator. Both are suggestive of a FORWARD looking benign inflation outlook. Coincident indicators like CPI assure an overshoot by the Fed due to the lag. I don't underestand why this gets so little discussion!
Barry -- you're a bright, pragmatic guy...any thoughts on this? Thanks in advance.
Posted by: ss | June 14, 2006 at 02:32 PM
The folks at shadowstats.com have done good work on the changes in the methodology in calculating CPI over time, which have tended to lower reported inflation in the last few years and may make historical comparisons less useful.
http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bin/bgn/article/id=343
Posted by: Mrbubbs | June 14, 2006 at 03:49 PM
To answer SS, the problems lies with the fac that this has been a weak recovery, stimulus driven, overly dependent on real estate.
Why else would the market be so concerned about a 6% Federal Funds rate?
If you are weak, you become more concerned about the amount of oxygen in the room . . .
Posted by: Barry Ritholtz | June 16, 2006 at 02:06 PM
I always wondered why he was not a way bigger star than he is. I would think some one like him would be a mogal by now. It must be because he is openly gay or would not sell out, i dunno.
Posted by: Buy Online Rx | November 09, 2010 at 02:53 PM