With the Fed rate decision coming up today, we thought we'd re-post this post from April 19th:
The prospect of the Fed nearing an end to its tightening cycle seems like a plausible reason for a 200 point rally in the Dow - right?
In our newly released study, The Inverted Yield Curve ~ The End of The Cycle, we analyzed prior Fed rate tightening cycles since 1962. Among our findings was that in the period spanning the Fed's last rate hike to its first cut (average span of six months), the market has an average decline of nearly 7%, and has only risen during two of the nine periods. In the chart below, we created a composite chart of the S&P 500's performance during the 'limbo' period of Fed tightening cycles.
Very interesting commentary and data. If you, however, include only the data where there was no recession (1980, 1984, 1987, 1989, and 1995) the average return looks dramatically different -- (1.36%). Obviously the difference is huge when there's no recession...the one outlier was 1987 (which was the only big negative number) and it had its own "special situation".
The BIGGER question therefore is ...will we have a recession?
Posted by: ss | August 08, 2006 at 11:46 AM
Another question to ask is, is this the last hike? If they pause through elections and hike again in Dec, then what?
Posted by: blogo | August 09, 2006 at 08:32 AM
I really like this website , and hope you will write more ,thanks so much!You are so talented continue doing great topics.
Posted by: Ugg Outlet | September 27, 2011 at 03:18 AM
Thanks a lot for your overwhelming participation and appreciation of the different activities The post is pretty good. I really never thought I could have a good read by this time until I found out this forum. I am grateful for the information given.
Posted by: UGGS Sale | October 30, 2011 at 11:44 PM
To be truly happy is a question of how we begin and not of how we end, of what we want and not of what we have
Posted by: UGGs On Sale | November 08, 2011 at 02:05 AM
The wait for COD: MW3 is killing me, I wish it would just be released already!
Posted by: UGGs On Sale | November 16, 2011 at 01:23 AM
You can only create X instances of an enum type, where X is the number of elements that the enum type holds.
Posted by: Moncler Outlet | November 25, 2011 at 08:13 PM
I had this website saved a while in the past but my computer crashed.
Posted by: Juicy Couture | January 11, 2012 at 02:39 AM
I would like to thanks for the efforts which you written this nice article. This is such a great resource that you are providing and sharing with us.
Posted by: Stock Market News | April 21, 2012 at 04:49 AM