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« GS Up 12 Days in a Row | Main | Dow Members -- Then and Now »


The Bonds are not justified by the
currently known economic data, but
the market predicts.
So, the bonds are, perhaps, predicting a sharp downturn and crisis of sorts. The quality spreads need to be watched. They are
growing and at the tipping point.

This stock market may collaborate with that by putting the top in.

Watch J.P. Morgan JPM at ~48.85 .

If markets+JPM open higher and JPM hits close to this level of 48.85 ( +- 0.50 ) with
SPX ~1342, DOW ~11820 then look for possibility that the top has been put in.
This price target for JPM is only for this week and could change next week.

Market has moved up last two days from a smaller buying pressure and
could reach the lows on that measure - highs in price , ushering correction.
JPM is a part of BKX and BKX is at the resistance 114.60 ,120 and 122 all
with precision 0.50.

Only a blow-out move up will save the top here and take BKX to 122 area.
Alternatively we will back and fill again until we get to BKX 122
Our expectation is that 114.60 will hold or the DOW and SPX resistances will
have to be reevaluated up as well by about 3-4%.

Just like our XOI see (, this may work the same way where
initial resistance 114.60 is held then penetrated on the spike to 120-122 area and

Please understand we are short term traders and do not take seriously
any predictions until our short/ultra-short indicators tell us to take action.

We advice you do the same.

If the above is unclear, please read the text in reverse, I must have been
thinking in Hebrew, while writing this article (: :). Alternative... email me.

See us at

Boris Chikvashvili

I would point out that while the speculators are long the 10 year, they are short the 2 year. The commercials are LONG the 2 year. This suggests a STEEPENING of the curve...EXACTLY what the current equity leadership is suggesting. Banks, retail, and tech have taken the reins from the "bad" leadership (stuff stocks). This is a scary setup for the bears, especially as we close out what was supposed to be the "easy short, seasonal trade". As under invested, over hedged, (high put call) the HF community is, we could well see a melt up...the least expected outcome right now.

Which is the tougher/scarier trade here (at resistance)?

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