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« DJIA Overbought / Oversold | Main | Oil vs. Oil Stocks »


Does anyone really think futures markets are prediction markets? The dictionary with its entries for 'contango' and 'backwardation' doesn't think so.

That said, if they are, then might you not note that there has not been a year-over-year nominal decline in repeat-sales housing indexes for the last thirty years? I am eyeballing the OFHEO's HPI, which is a Shiller-style index based on Fannie/Freddie data, and the minimum year-over-year nominal number I have is 0% back to '75.

My bet (and naturally my book) say that 2007 is the first. 06Q3 HPI comes out tomorrow and might even show it, but if not, I expect it by next year.

We'll see.

make that back to 1930. And, no, these futures numbers are silly fodder.

There have been numerous declines on a real basis though not nominal. Given how much higher inflation was in the past compared to today, it would be surprising if we didn't see a nominal drop in prices.

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