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« Best and Worst Performing Stocks Year to Date | Main | DJIA Member Historical P/E Charts: Part Four »

Comments

Bearishness at a 6-month high. Bullishness at a 6-month low. This looks like a good opportunity to me.

I believe the list is dominated by perma-bears, that is, persons whose outlook on broader equities is persistently negative, regardless of evidence to the contrary. I will come up with a list of suggestions for improvements. The last time this poll had 50% bears, the SPX gained about 150 points, the INDU about 500, and the COMPQ about 50 points over the next month.

http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2007/01/blogger-sentiment-poll-profoundly-broken/

Is the poll wrong this time? We’ll know in about 28 days! But the bottom line is, the Blogger Sentiment Poll by TickerSense is profoundly broken.

Strong words? Yes. Deservedly used? Let’s see.

Of the twenty-eight weeks the poll has been in existence, it has had bears exceeding bulls on twenty-five of those weeks. As an example of how wrong these bloggers can be, the first issue of the poll was Monday July 10, 2006. From then, until the latest poll on Monday January 29, 2007, the S&P 500 has returned about 12%. Yes, TWELVE PERCENT, a stronger return than the index usually gives in a full year, over a period where for twenty-four applicable weeks (I don’t count the last four weeks because we don’t know their outcome yet), the bloggers have been bearish for twenty-one of them.

I have identified the problem - you really can’t miss it - the list of bloggers being polled is dominated by perma-bears, that is, persons whose outlook on broader equities is persistently negative, regardless of evidence to the contrary. Not all of these bloggers are perma-bears, but enough of them are to seriously tarnish the results. Unfortunately, the pollsters allow participants to submit their votes anonymously, so we cannot go back and see exactly who the culprits are, but I have my suspicions. Hi, guys!

Why is this poll full of perma-bears? I can see three competing theories, but I am not sure which has more weight of evidence behind it. Perhaps all of them have some merit.

More at

http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2007/01/blogger-sentiment-poll-profoundly-broken/

http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2007/01/fixing-the-blogger-sentiment-poll/

I have a plan by which one could create a poll that has a reputation for accuracy, a poll where all the participants are above-board and graded publicly for their calls, and a poll that becomes a resource to be used and consulted by people who want to know what the best market strategists on the web really think. Unfortunately, such a poll is directly at odds with TickerSense’s stated goal of gaining “a consensus view on the market from the top investment bloggers.” It’s painfully obvious that the “top investment bloggers” are not good market-timers; the poll should be remade, with a focus on ability in the market, rather than prominence in the blogosphere. I shall bullet-point the improvement plan; give associated supporting detail; and then give the final specifications of the plan.

http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2007/01/fixing-the-blogger-sentiment-poll/

The concept of sentiment is to measure what the idiots are doing, not the smart boys. You can't make money from the smart boys.

I think Lazlo's poll makes good sense.

The comments to this entry are closed.

Blogger Sentiment

  • The Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll is a survey of the web's most prominent investment bloggers, asking "What is your outlook on the S&P 500 for the next 30 days?" Conducted on a weekly basis, the poll is sent to participants each Thursday, and the results are released on Ticker Sense each Monday. The goal of this poll is to gain a consensus view on the market from the top investment bloggers -- a community that continues to grow as a valued source of investment insight. © Copyright 2015 Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll

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