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As many of you know by now, CME offers housing futures for investors to take a position in. The contracts trade off of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index that tracks single-family home prices in a number of cities. The most recent actual home-price data released by S&P/Case-Shiller in from January 2007. Below we compare the difference between the CME housing contracts that expire in February 2008 to the actual January 2007 prices to see what the futures are forecasting for home prices. Based off the January prices, the Chicago market is expected to fall the least by 3.3%. Boston is expected to fall the most at -6.2%. The Composite Index of all markets is expected to fall 5.6%, indicating investors believe a bottom will still not be in place by February of next year.
We have been tracking the housing futures for some time now, and below we look at how accurate they were based on our initial data points. We first started tracking the housing futures in July 2006. Below we highlight where the November 2006 contracts were trading in July along with the actual November 2006 numbers that were released earlier this year (there is usually a 3 month lag in the release of the actual reports). In general, the contracts seemed to do a pretty good job of forecasting future housing prices five months out. Miami, Boston, San Diego and Washington DC did, however, have a pretty wide discrepancy. Miami was forecast to fall much more than it actually did, while Boston, San Diego and DC were all expected to fall much less than they actually did.
If yes it will be helpful for everyone.
(futures broker) http://www.kisfutures.com
Posted by: Account Deleted | March 20, 2012 at 03:30 AM
Product Code: 1520010 Housing incl Mobile Homes; 6008000 Real Estate Services NAICS Code: 2332 Residential Building Construction; 53139 Other Activities Related to Real Estate SIC Code: 1520 Residential Building Construction; 6512 Nonresidential building operators; 6513 Apartment building operators; 6514 Dwelling operators, exc. apartments; 6515 Mobile home site operators; 6517 Railroad property lessors; 6519 Real property lessors, not elsewhere classified; 6531 Real estate agents and managers; 6541 Title abstract offices; 6552 Subdividers and developers, not elsewhere classified; 6553 Cemetery subdividers and developers
Posted by: Adt Reviews | July 30, 2012 at 03:26 PM