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« Some Stocks Up BIG | Main | June 4th Blogger Sentiment Poll »


What's interesting about his analysis (something that ought to give everyone pause) is the number of bloggers whose accuracy is greater than 50%. There were only three. And out of those three, two were permanently bullish. Of those who made bullish and bearish decisions, only one had a correct rating higher than 50%. CXO would rate that accuracy as "a very weak stock market forecasting record".

What would be interesting to see is the same analysis from Birinyi showing how the non-disclosed bloggers are doing. I am sure they could create the same sort of table, only identify the bloggers as blogger A, B, C, etc.

Even though the accuracy is... I'd never give up the valuable insight I get from all of the participants. And the laughs from Muckdog.

Thanks for the comment Oddfish. It would be interesting to see how the other bloggers performed, but unfortunately not even we can see their responses unless they choose to show them. So in that regard we can't take the analysis any further.

Time to make another dartboard with "Bullish/Bearish/Neutral" on it...looks like it would raise most bloggers accuracy...

And I would point out that with 3 selections available, you are looking for those bloggers who outperform 33%, not 50%.

Full respect to any blogger publicly having opinions.

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Blogger Sentiment

  • The Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll is a survey of the web's most prominent investment bloggers, asking "What is your outlook on the S&P 500 for the next 30 days?" Conducted on a weekly basis, the poll is sent to participants each Thursday, and the results are released on Ticker Sense each Monday. The goal of this poll is to gain a consensus view on the market from the top investment bloggers -- a community that continues to grow as a valued source of investment insight. © Copyright 2015 Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll

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  • Ticker Sense was founded and developed by analysts at Birinyi Associates. Birinyi Associates continues to own and manage all content.