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« Be Optimistic; Use Caution | Main | Dow 14,000 »


Weekly TT poll:

Looks like there are still plenty of Bears for the week at Traders-talk, but the actual position poll was interesting yesterday.

The data has changed a bit since then but on Sunday afternoon, we had 23% FL Bulls and 31% FS Bears. When I studied our data pool from 2004 I found that when the Fully Short Bears were above 30% and the Fully Long Bulls were above 20%, 72% of the time we were at a short-term top or at least a multi-day resting place for the market--most times we saw better than a 1% decline start immediately. I was actually quite surprised at this but it does suggest some selling this week.

The demographic of the TT pollees is something different from most polls. Much more savvy, though certainly as prone to excess as any group.

Speaking of excess, I note that has 69% Bulls and 12% Bears this morning.

Mark Young

Savvy? Or Sorry?

For Wed 7/11, 12 longs and 21 shorts.

For Thu 7/12, 11 longs and 19 shorts.

For Fri 7/13, 8 longs and 18 shorts.

For Mon 7/16, 8 longs and 18 shorts.

For Tue 7/17, 11 longs and 16 shorts.

In case you're wondering, those guys do get bullish, like on their positions for Tue 6/5, when they had 15 longs and 10 shorts. Just before the start of the June correction, the S&P lost 9 points that day, and 40 more in the next two days. Blindsided!

My conclusion? Sorry, not savvy. When they turn bullish, it's time to hedge. When they make comments like

"biggest bull trap ever"

or perfectly call the bottom by predicting a "big drop"

It's time to go long again.

Savvy or sorry? Speaking of yer sorry doo-dahs...

Bill, you don't know what you're talking about. Really.

The arrogance is amazing, to be frank. Homeric. I look at this stuff every day, intra-day. You've given it a cursory glance. You haven't charted it, have you? You've not traded intra-day off of it, have you?

But you feel dandy about insulting a fine group of folks.

Any group can be a fade, when they are leaning hard enough. This group is no different, especially when they are leaning for a long time. Short-term it's another story. In your first example, sure they were 52% Bearish (not short--key distinction--I have no idea why you didn't make it), but they were also 19% fully long, just slightly less than fully short. I've noted that >50% Bearish will typically get you a rally of some sort but not necessarily one that lasts.

I was Bullish early today based upon the 50%+ Bears in the poll data, and advised my folks of such, but I also told them it would fail. So, what happened? If you'd bought the open today you'd be down.

Who'd be sorry now?

I shorted it at 156375, however. Hmmm, funny that. Not a bad trade. Still short at the moment.

If you want to make yourself feel more important, perhaps you should do it in a manner that doesn't seem so petty. If you want to make some money, perhaps you'd do better to leave the analysis to experts.

I really hate it when folks make fun of other folks being wrong or denigrate them for such. As I said the first time we "met", we're all a good fade from time to time. The reason I care to even discuss it with you is that you appear to be misunderstanding it and thus misrepresenting a valuable sentiment tool. One that I use in a demonstrably profitable manner.

BTW, the data from this site are beginning to show too much aggressive Bearishness over time. That can be a signal of import. You can check out the chart posted there for the current reading.

You could, if you were properly inclined, even email me and I might send you the raw data so that you could do a proper analysis.

Interesting split. Any further analysis or breakout of who believes what and why?

The comments to this entry are closed.

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