The US Unemployment rate reported this morning gained 50bps from the previous month, and was 40bps above the economist survey of 5.1%. At 5.5%, unemployment sits at precisely the same level as the start of the December-07 expansion. Excluding the current period, unemployment declines 2.77% on average during expansions, and gains 2.67% on average during recessions. Below we highlight the unemployment rate and all recessions since 1948.
It is a well known fact that the job markets within the US begin to drop when recession begins to rise. Hopefully we won't see the same unemployment rates that we saw back in the early 80's.
Posted by: Jerry Dill | June 17, 2008 at 04:28 PM
It is a well known fact that the job markets within the US begin to drop when recession begins to rise. Hopefully we won't see the same unemployment rates that we saw back in the early 80's.
Posted by: Jerry Dill | June 17, 2008 at 04:28 PM
It is a well known fact that the job markets within the US begin to drop when recession begins to rise. Hopefully we won't see the same unemployment rates that we saw back in the early 80's.
Posted by: Jerry Dill | June 17, 2008 at 04:28 PM
It would be helpful if these unemp. graphs would show the unemployment rates using the old U-6 and current U-3 models for comparison. This graph could be a mixture of both U-6 and U-3 computations. If so, then it's an apples to oranges comparison. Please see comments by Barry Ritholtz http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/06/unemployment-re.html
If I am correct, I have seen two U-6 computations, and both are a bit higher than U-3.
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