Ticker Sense

August 25th Blogger Sentiment Poll

Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:

24/7 Wall St. (-) Carl Futia (+) Controlled Greed (-) Crossing Wall Street  Daily Dose of Optimism (N) Dash of Insight (N) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Fallond Stock Picks (+) In the Money  Information Arbitrage (-)  Jack Stevison (-) Knight Trader (N) Learning Curve (+) MaoXian  Millionaire Now (N) Navivest (-) Peridot Capitalist (+) Quant Investor (+) Random Roger's Big Picture (-) Shark Report (-) Smart Money Tracker (N) Stock Advisors.com Traders-Talk (-) WindRiver Advisors

Pop Quiz: INDU A/D

How many times this year has the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted 30 decliners?

Correct answer is nine.

S&P 500 Sector Relative Strength

There has been much talk recently of firms unwinding their long commodity and short financial strategies.  The energy sector experienced a quick 20% decline and financial stocks began to look attractive, for a minute.  Below we look at selected sectors' relative strength versus the S&P 500.  The chart begins on May 20th, energy's peak. 

As the energy sector declined financials firmed, this was a short-term phenomenon.  As the last week has shown, the bad news has not ended in the financial sector and the energy correction is drawing to a close.  The defensive stocks have been the best names, with health care leading and consumer staples closely following.  Energy however is likely to offer the best opportunity in the coming months.  Oil has found short-term support at $111.75 and the 200-day moving average ($110.37 currently), with strong support at $100.  As oil slows its decent look for energy stocks to regain some of their losses.

August 18th Blogger Sentiment Poll

This week's poll results are mixed.

Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:

24/7 Wall St. (N) Carl Futia (+) Controlled Greed (-) Crowder Blog (-) Crossing Wall Street  Dash of Insight (+) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Fallond Stock Picks (+) In the Money  Jack Stevison (+) Knight Trader (N) Learning Curve (+) MaoXian  Millionaire Now (N) Navivest (-) Peridot Capitalist (N) Quant Investor (+) Random Roger's Big Picture (-) Shark Report (N) Smart Money Tracker (+) Stock Advisors.com Traders-Talk (-) Wall Street Folly  Wishing Wealth (-)

US Job Losses Continue

This morning's initial jobless claims number in conjuction with higher than expected CPI was disheartening as S&P 500 futures saw a prompt 10pt drop.  The US job market continues to weaken, there were 450k new jobless claims last week and the previous number was revised up from 455k to 460k.  The case for recession is getting stronger.  The chart below shows continuing claims, initial claims and the unemployment rate through the last economic cycle.  Changes during the two periods (2001 recession and '07 - '08 bear market) are shown below. 

While a change in the initial claim number doesn't mean as much, we are seeing that more people are losing their jobs.  The most interesting part of chart is in 2001 where initial claims were flat while continuing claims rose, showing that as jobs were lost none were gained.  On another note, the stock market bottomed in October of 2002, after the official end of the recession, but at the peak of the job losses.

August 11th Blogger Sentiment Poll

There are more bulls than bears in this week's poll.

Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:

24/7 Wall St. (N) Carl Futia (+) Controlled Greed (N) Crowder Blog (-) Crossing Wall Street  Daily Dose of Optimism (+) Dash of Insight (+) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Fallond Stock Picks (+) In the Money  Information Arbitrage (-) Jack Stevison (+) Knight Trader (N) Learning Curve (+) MaoXian  Millionaire Now (N) Navivest (-) Peridot Capitalist (+) Quant Investor (+) Random Roger's Big Picture (-) Shark Report (N) Smart Money Tracker (+) Stock Advisors.com  Wall Street Folly  Wishing Wealth (-) 

DJIA Member Trading Ranges

Below we highlight the 30 Dow members with respect to their various trading ranges.  After the recent volatility in the markets (S&P 500 +2.9% on Tuesday, -1.8% today) some of these stocks are on the move.  BAC had traded at its theoretical high of $34 and has declined over the last five days into it "normal" range.  XOM continues to show weakness as it is 4.7% below the lower end of its range while JNJ is approaching its theoretical high.

(Click on the image for a PDF version and explanation.)

US Market & Sector Bull/Bear Filter

Between 7/15 and 7/23 the S&P 500 financial sector rallied 30% over 8 days and marking the beginning of a new bull market after its 54% decline from 2/20/07 to 7/15/08.  Birinyi Associates defines bull and bear markets based on the traditional definition of a 20% gain or loss from peak to trough.  The following table highlights the current cycle for the DJIA, S&P 500 and its ten sectors as well as the historical average (since 1962) for each.  The sectors are traditionally more volatile than the markets; financials for example have had 20 bull and bear market cycles since 1962 compared to the S&P's eight rallies and nine declines.

Please note that the utilities and materials sectors peaked on 12/10/07 and 5/16/08 but have not yet declined 20% from those peaks and have therefore not yet entered a new cycle.  The average bear market for utilities is -32.26% and the average bear market for materials is -29.02%.

Birinyi In the News

Laszlo Birinyi appeared on Bloomberg TV this morning to discuss the US equity market with focus on financial and energy stocks.  Click here to read Bloomberg's report.

August 4th Blogger Sentiment Poll

There are more bulls than bears in this week's poll.

 

Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:

24/7 Wall St. (-) Carl Futia (+) Controlled Greed (N) Crowder Blog (-) Crossing Wall Street  Daily Dose of Optimism (+) Dash of Insight (N) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Fallond Stock Picks (N) Information Arbitrage (-) Jack Stevison (+) Learning Curve (+) MaoXian  Millionaire Now (N) Navivest (-) Peridot Capitalist (+) Quant Investor (+) Random Roger's Big Picture (-) Shark Report (N) Smart Money Tracker (+) Stock Advisors.com  Traders Talk (+) Wall Street Folly  Wishing Wealth (-)