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« September 2008 | Main | November 2008 »
Yes, that's right, at one point early this morning EST Volkswagen AG was up 100% and surpassed Exxon-Mobil as the largest company in the world. The move has been blamed on a short squeeze, but could you really imagine XOM going up $70 in the first hour of trading?
There are still more bulls than bears this week.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:
24/7 Wall St. (N) Ahead of the Ticker (+) Carl Futia (+) Crowder Blog (-) Crossing Wall Street (+) Dash of Insight (N) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Fallond Stock Picks (+) In the Money Information Arbitrage (-) Jack Stevison (+) Learning Curve (+) Knight Trader (N) MaoXian Millionaire Now (+) Navivest (-) Peridot Capitalist (+) Quant Investor (+) Random Roger's Big Picture (+) Stock Advisors.com Traders Talk (N) Wall Street Folly Wishing Wealth (-)
the next CRASH was written and distributed to Birinyi Associates' clients in August of 2007. In it Mr. Birinyi questioned the rationale behind structural changes such as decimalization, ECNs, and increasingly more complex trading strategies and vehicles. As a result of the essay, Birinyi Associates arrived at the conclusion that "the markets in the first decade of the 21st century are prone to systemic failureas a result of technological innovations and utilization, rapid growth of sophisticated but not necessarily vetted instruments, and other changes in the wide world of finance...We believe the various structural reforms of the 1990s have not achieved the desired effect with regard to the individual."
We continue to wonder why nobody is PISSED. These kinds of market gyrations have not occurred since the 1930s, and as much as international financial markets have been disrupted, changes to the structure of the stock market have gone seemingly unnoticed. Specialists and the services provided by the New York Stock Exchange have been removed from the picture causing market anomalies that are detailed in the publication, but have also been highlighted here. What we have witnessed over the last two months has been the culmination of complex instruments and that the theories on which they were founded are both flawed and short sighted.
Below we highlight some of the charts depicting not weakness, but market irregularities.
Additional information has been posted on this blog over the last year, visit these posts for more:
Google's 9/30 Activity: What If OOPS Doesn't Cut It
Ruling Out Speculation in the Oil Market
Financial Sector Has Best Six Day Move EVER!
S&P 500: Yet Another Cause for Concern
The SEC Uptick Rule Change: Bad Timing for a Bad Idea
Upticks: More Freedom, Less Security
Taking Off the Collar (and the leash)
Birinyi Associates continues to be on the forefront of market research and analysis. Their work and commentary is featured by Forbes, Reuters, Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, Barron's and the New York Timesalmost daily. To stay ahead of market developments, macro trends, and market scuttlebutt that isn't mentioned in the news many investors, traders, institutions and individuals turn to Birinyi Associates. Click here to learn more about Birinyi's newsletter and one of the finest research products available, the Mini-Institutional service.
This week's poll continues the overwhelming bullishness.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:
24/7 Wall St. (N) Ahead of the Ticker (+) Carl Futia (+) Crossing Wall Street Dash of Insight (N) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Fallond Stock Picks (+) In the Money Information Arbitrage (-) Jack Stevison (+) Learning Curve (+) Knight Trader (N) MaoXian Millionaire Now (+) Navivest (-) Peridot Capitalist (+) Quant Investor (+) Random Roger's Big Picture (+) Smart Money Tracker (N) Shark Report (+) Stock Advisors.com Traders Talk (+) Wall Street Folly Wishing Wealth (-)
Warren Buffet's encouraging op-ed in the New York Times today may have inspired some buyers this morning, but after a world-wide credit crisis, weakening home prices, and the crumbling of several of the world's most prestigious financial institutions, how much will investors really be willing to pay for earnings. Shown below is the 12 month trailing P/E ratio for the S&P 500, its current level and the 5 year average. The average has been declining since the first quarter of 2004, where it peaked, but this could also be a cyclical signal that earnings will have to become much more robust before buyers are willing to bet on future earnings. A quick recession that's over before it starts (on an announced basis) would be encouraging. In any case, the market's P/E ratio is still above its long-term lows, but below any kind of inflated state and continued healthy earnings (like those of Google and IBM) will be a long term positive once the fear leaves the market.
After Monday's huge gain there were some sectors that had follow through rallies yesterday, and some that did not. The chart below highlights the ten S&P 500 sectors and their gains both on Monday and on Tuesday. As shown, the financial sector had the largest gain during Tuesday's market decline, but the energy sector has had the largest total gain since the market's recent bottom.
Click here to learn more about in-depth research provided by Birinyi Associates.
Even though the market rallied 11% yesterday, the S&P 500 is still oversold! As shown below the S&P remains more than two standard deviations below its 50-day moving average.
As a result of technical troubles we were forced to re-poll our bloggers yesterday during the trading day. Yesterday's near 1000 point gain has all the bears running for cover. Even Roger Nusbaum (Big Picture) is a bull, which I think might be a first ever on Ticker Sense.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:
24/7 Wall St. (N) Ahead of the Ticker (+) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (N) Elliot Wave Lives On (N) Fallond Stock Picks (+) In the Money Jack Stevison (+) Learning Curve (+) Knight Trader (+) MaoXian Millionaire Now (+) Navivest (+) Peridot Capitalist (+) Quant Investor (+) Random Roger's Big Picture (+) Smart Money Tracker (N) Shark Report (+) Traders Talk (+) Wall Street Folly
After yesterday's unprecedented move in the US markets there were, surprisingly, several stocks that were down. The largest percentage gainers and losers are highlighted below, but there was also a direct correlation between the largest movers yesterday and other group of stocks, suggesting further price action. Subscribe to Birinyi's Mini-Institutional service for more detailed information.
GE, traditionally thought of as the safest of havens, the quintessential anchor for any portfolio, may have disappointed a lot of investors today. On a day when the market was up over 11%! the best day in stocks since the 1930s, and when 481 of the S&P 500 stocks were up, GE was down 2.3%. We would not have been surprised to see GE up 10 - 15% after being down over 40% on the year, and while it might not be a comfort, there is some relief in the fact that today may be explained by an imbalance from Friday. So don't give up yet.
Shown below is a two day chart of GE, with the price at 4:00 pm highlighted by the dotted red line. As shown, there was a buy-on-close imbalance on Friday that resulted in an unfairly high closing price. If we take the 4:00 pm price GE was actually up $0.37 today.
The Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll is a survey of the web's most prominent investment bloggers, asking "What is your outlook on the S&P 500 for the next 30 days?" Conducted on a weekly basis, the poll is sent to participants each Thursday, and the results are released on Ticker Sense each Monday. The goal of this poll is to gain a consensus view on the market from the top investment bloggers -- a community that continues to grow as a valued source of investment insight. © Copyright 2015 Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll
Ticker Sense was founded and developed by analysts at Birinyi Associates. Birinyi Associates continues to own and manage all content.
