Ticker Sense

September 28th Blogger Sentiment Poll

Bloggers are spit this week between bullish and bearish.

Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:

24/7 Wall St (-) Carl Futia (+) Daily Dose of Optimism (-) Dash of Insight (+) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Fallond Stock Picks (-) In the Money  Knight Trader (N) The Learning Curve (-) MaoXian  Millionaire Now (N) Peridot Capitalist (-) Smart Money Tracker (+) Traders Talk (N) Wall Street Folly  Wishing Wealth (+)

Birinyi Featured in the News

In case you missed it over the weekend Laszlo Birinyi was featured in two prominent articles citing his bullish case.  First, Fortune featured Mr. Birinyi a "the most enthusiastic bull" in their investing section hoping to answer the question "Is the Rally for Real?"

Let's start with the most enthusiastic, Laszlo Birinyi, founder of Birinyi Associates, who notes that the current rally is the strongest ever. Since hitting its closing low of 676 on March 9, the S&P 500 has risen 0.31% a day on average, he says. That is three times faster than the previous fastest recovery in 1982, which averaged a 0.12% per day rise. "This is the Usain Bolt of markets," Birinyi says. "We just blew through the records.

Birinyi, who warned his clients in October 2007 of impending doom in bank stocks, expects more gains this year, in part because "no one is calling this a bull market." Negative sentiment, of course, is a classic contrarian indicator that stocks will keep climbing. Birinyi advises buying S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY) to take advantage of the broad market rally.

Click here for a link to the full text.

In a second article, the New York Times wondered "Is the Recent Rally Irrational Exuberance?"

Despite this grim backdrop, Laszlo Birinyi, president of Birinyi Associates, a stock market research firm in Westport, Conn., believes that we are in the early stages of a classic bull market that has plenty of room to run.

“At any juncture during a bull market over the last 50 years you could point to economic problems,” he said. “The obvious problems aren’t the ones that I worry about.” In his view, the economic weakness has been documented so well that the market has already taken it into account. “The negatives are right in front of your nose,” he said. “The market is looking past it.”

Click here for a link to the full text.

September 21st Blogger Sentiment Poll

Bloggers are mostly neutral on the first day of fall.

Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:

24/7 Wall St (N) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (+) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Fallond Stock Picks (-) Knight Trader (N) The Learning Curve (-) MaoXian  Millionaire Now (N) Navivest (N) Peridot Capitalist (-) Smart Money Tracker (+) Traders Talk (N) Wall Street Folly  Wishing Wealth (+)

Natural Gas Explodes After Birinyi Recommendation

On September 1st we published a bulletin to our paying subscribers highlighting that natural gas had entered a period of extreme contango only seen three times since 1990.  We measured the ratio between the current contract and the contract expiring in one year's time and found that this ratio was 2:1, the highest ever.  In each case following a peak the rolling forward contract gained over 55% in the ensuing six months.  

The natural instinct would have been to buy UNG, but citing its structural dilemma and premium to NAV we recommended instead buying the S&P 500 Oil and Gas E&P stocks  (DVN, NBL, CHK to name a few).  Since the bulletin was released, an equal-weighted portfolio of the twelve stocks has gained 13.3% compared to the S&P 500's 5.5%.

(Click here for a link to the full 2 page bulletin)

Subscribers to Birinyi Associates' Mini-Institutional service would have received this bulletin on September 1.

September 14th Blogger Sentiment Poll

Bloggers are mostly neutral at the start of September's first full week.

Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:

24/7 Wall St (N) Carl Futia (+) Crossing Wall Street  Dash of Insight (N) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Fallond Stock Picks (-) In the Money  The Learning Curve (-) MaoXian  Millionaire Now (N) Navivest (N) Peridot Capitalist (-) Stock Advisors.com  Traders Talk (-) Wishing Wealth (+)

Tuesday's Economic Reports - Key Market Movers

Today at 10:00am there are four important economic indicators due for release.  The ISM Manufacturing index will most likely be in focus following similar reports from China and Europe, and more importantly its current estimate of 50.5 indicates the first growth since 1/31/08.  Looking at previous market reactions we would note that in the six times Pending Home Sales were reported better than expected the S&P rallied each time, while a better than expected ISM number does not always result in a gain.

Birinyi in the News - Squawk on the Street Tomorrow

Catch Laszlo Birinyi on tomorrow's airing of CNBC's Squawk on the Street tomorrow between 10:00 and 11:00am.