S&P 500's String of 1% Moves

In the past 50 trading days, the market has closed with a move of at least one percent in 28 of those days.  There have been only nine other periods since 1962 which experienced similar levels of volatility.

 
 
Following these periods, a clear trend does not emerge.  Five out the nine have occurred right before or closely after a market bottom.  The other four have occurred during bear markets.  On average, the S&P 500 is down 74 bps in the next six months after entering a similar period (positive 44% of the time) and up 64 bps (positive 56% of the time) after twelve months.  In six occurrences the volatility continues for an extended period (more than 25 trading days).

 

Comments

[dissident]

Thanks for the history. Also, great job on predicting Wednesday's move.

[A1 Stock Picks]

I agree with dissident - this was some great advice. There's nothing like looking at the past to know what will happen in the future. Thanks for being the experts!