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« July 2010 | Main | September 2010 »
It is fair to say that this August has been a weak month for the market. The S&P 500 is down 4.7% MTD. We examined similar months of August, since 1928, to see if it gave us any indication of the market in September.
In the six years with similar performance in the month of August, three years the market went up the next month and in three it went down.
This research was mentioned in a CNBC story that can be found here.
The telecom sector is overbought, 0.3% above the upper end of its trading envelope.
The sector is up 2.3% MTD while the S&P 500 is down 3.4%. Year-to-date telecoms have outperformed the market by 2.8%.
There are only nine stocks in the S&P 500 telecom sector index. The index is grossly dominated by VZ and T. Verizon is a 29% weight in the index and AT&T makes up 54% of the index.
Bloggers were undecided again this week, but the bias was positive.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants: 24/7 Wall St (N) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (N) Elliot Wave Lives On (+) Fallond Stock Picks (-) In the Money Learning Curve (-) MaoXian (+) Millionaire Now (N) Peridot Capitalist Quant Investor (N) StockAdvisors.com Smart Money Tracker (+) Traders-Talk (N) Wall Street Folly Wishing Wealth (-)
The jobs numbers on Friday will probably the most watched this week.
This month the yield spread of the 10-year treasury to the DJIA dividend yield fell below zero for the first time since Jun-09. Currently the 10-year yields 2.63% vs the 2.73% dividend yield of DJIA stocks (S&P 500 is currently yielding 2.16%).
Last evening we published our September 2010 issue of Reminiscences newsletter. Some of our thoughts were featured in a BusinessWeek article. The story can be read here.
If you are interested in subscribing and receiving our monthly commentary, insight and strategy on the market, please visit our website. If you subscribe today, you will gain access to our monthly newsletter (including our September issue) along with our weekly stock rankings.
The financial sector fell into a 10% decline yesterday from its peak on 8/2/10. Health care remains in a 10% decline which began 1/19/10, the sector is down a total of 15.3% since then.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:
24/7 Wall St (-) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (+) Elliot Wave Lives On (+) Fallond Stock Picks (-) In the Money Learning Curve (-) MaoXian (+) Millionaire Now (N) Peridot Capitalist Quant Investor (N) StockAdvisors.com Smart Money Tracker (N) Traders-Talk Wall Street Folly Wishing Wealth (-)
With a perfect 33.33% division, bloggers are undecided this week.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants: 24/7 Wall St (-) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (+) Elliot Wave Lives On (+) Fallond Stock Picks (-) In the Money Learning Curve (-) MaoXian Millionaire Now (N) Peridot Capitalist (N) Quant Investor StockAdvisors.com Smart Money Tracker (N) Traders-Talk Wall Street Folly Wishing Wealth (-)
The Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll is a survey of the web's most prominent investment bloggers, asking "What is your outlook on the S&P 500 for the next 30 days?" Conducted on a weekly basis, the poll is sent to participants each Thursday, and the results are released on Ticker Sense each Monday. The goal of this poll is to gain a consensus view on the market from the top investment bloggers -- a community that continues to grow as a valued source of investment insight. © Copyright 2015 Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll
Ticker Sense was founded and developed by analysts at Birinyi Associates. Birinyi Associates continues to own and manage all content.
