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« September 2010 | Main | November 2010 »
The bulls have lost their conviction and respondents were mostly neutral this week.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:
24/7 Wall St (-) Carl Futia (+) Crossing Wall Street Dash of Insight (+) Elliot Wave Lives On (+) In the Money Learning Curve MaoXian Millionaire Now (N) Peridot Capitalist (N) Quant Investor (N) StockAdvisors.com Smart Money Tracker (-) Traders-Talk (-) Wall Street Folly Wishing Wealth
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The S&P 500 pulled back a bit yesterday (down 1.6%), but remains overbought. We thought it might be a good time to take look at our Birinyi Industry Group Database to see where the S&P sectors and groups are relative to their trading ranges.
A few groups stand out. The consumer services group (APOL, DV, HRB) is oversold and within 2% of its most oversold level in the past 12 months. The one stock that makes up the construction materials group, VMC, is oversold.
The internet software group is overbought and also within 2% of its highest overbought level. That group is made up by AKAM, EBAY, GOOG, MWW, VRSN and YHOO.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:
24/7 Wall St (N) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (+) Elliot Wave Lives On (+) Fallond Stock Picks (+) Learning Curve (-) MaoXian (+) Millionaire Now (N) Peridot Capitalist (N) Quant Investor (N) StockAdvisors.com (N) Smart Money Tracker (-) Traders-Talk (-) Wall Street Folly Wishing Wealth (+)
The S&P 500 is up 12.5% or 131 points from the low on August 26th. We analyzed the index members to see which had the largest impact.
AAPL, XOM, ORCL, GE and SLB had the most positive impact on the index's climb. The top 10 leaders by index points contributed over 22% to the total rally.
Dividing the index into sectors: technology, energy and financials were the biggest contributor to the S&P's 131 point rally.
Bloggers maintain their bullish posture making it a six week run.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:
24/7 Wall St (+) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (+) Elliot Wave Lives On (+) Fallond Stock Picks (+) MaoXian Millionaire Now (N) Peridot Capitalist (N) Quant Investor (N) StockAdvisors.com Smart Money Tracker (-) Wall Street Folly Wishing Wealth (+)
In consulting our Sector Timing model this morning, we see that much of the market remains overbought.
Financials are the only sector to begin the week within its trading range. Telecom is overbought and within 2% of the most overbought level the sector has reached in the past 12 months (as noted above by "Absolute Sell Price").
Bloggers remain decidedly bullish to begin the new month and quarter.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants: 24/7 Wall St (+) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (+) Elliot Wave Lives On (+) Fallond Stock Picks (+) In the Money Learning Curve (-) MaoXian Millionaire Now (N) Peridot Capitalist (N) StockAdvisors.com Smart Money Tracker (+) Wall Street Folly Wishing Wealth (+)
Back on September 14th (link to post) we suggested that the third time could be a charm for the S&P 500, and a few days thereafter it broke through previous resistance at about 1125. Now comfortably above the 200-day average and having held the 1125 level the market is pausing at 1150. 1150 is a short term high from January and also the 176% projection level from the March-09 - June-09 Fibonacci Projection. Technicians are watching it closely and based on the chart below their actions are having an impact. Look for a close above 1150 to confirm the recent uptrend.
On different, but still technical, note: the 50-day average is now rapidly approaching the 200-day. Shown below, it is going to take a significant sell-off to avoid a golden cross. (We wonder if or when this point is going to come up in the media.) The bottom line is that we're in a new month and a new quarter, momentum is to the upside and look for a big move either today or Monday which will set the trend for the rest of the month.
The Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll is a survey of the web's most prominent investment bloggers, asking "What is your outlook on the S&P 500 for the next 30 days?" Conducted on a weekly basis, the poll is sent to participants each Thursday, and the results are released on Ticker Sense each Monday. The goal of this poll is to gain a consensus view on the market from the top investment bloggers -- a community that continues to grow as a valued source of investment insight. © Copyright 2015 Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll
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