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If you feel like the stock market has been defying gravity, you're right. The S&P 500 has been overbought for 31 consecutive trading days as part of a continuous rally that began on 12/1/10. While this type of gain is certainly not the "norm," there are 42 instances since 1945 where the S&P 500 has had longer winning streaks. As recently as 11/12/10 the market was overbought for 45 consecutive days, and in 1961 it was overbought for 94 consecutive days!
The conventional wisdom is that what goes up must come down, therefore an overbought stock or index is a better sell than a buy. When we analyzed the average returns of the 46 periods similar to this one, and found that over the next three and six months the S&P 500 has a 74% chance of gaining, and the average gain over six months is 4.74%. (click the image below to enlarge it)
when starting QB Christian Ponder was hurt. In 2011, though, Manuel has the reins of the offense, and with the talent surrounding him, it won’t be too long before he is being touted as a potential Heisman trophy winner in 2012.
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