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« February 2011 | Main | April 2011 »
The bloggers remained bullish over the weekend.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:
24/7 Wall St (N) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (N) Elliot Wave Lives On (+) Fallond Stock Picks Learning Curve (-) In the Money MaoXian Millionaire Now Peridot Capitalist (N) Quant Investor (N) StockAdvisors.com Smart Money Tracker Traders-Talk Wall Street Folly Wishing Wealth
The recommend portfolios in our Reminiscences newsletter are outperforming this month! The April 2011 issue of Reminiscences will be published this Wednesday after the close. It isn't too late to sign up for the newsletter and get involved with our portfolios!
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With the turmoil and crisis that continues in Japan, we have had many inquiries into its potential impact on US equities. Based on quarterly and annual earnings reports Birinyi Associates has compiled a list of large US corporations that receive the largest portion of their annual revenue from Japan. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) has by far the largest exposure at 18.06% of the total, with Texas Instruments (TXN), Weyerhaeuser (WY) and Qualcomm (QCOM) at just under 10%.
The market appears to believe that FCX will benefit in the long-run, as its stock has risen 6.80% since 3/14. Whereas NKE might be the biggest loser, down 11.35% over the same period.
The bulls remain vigilant in this week's poll.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:
24/7 Wall St (N) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (N) Elliot Wave Lives On (+) Fallond Stock Picks (-) Learning Curve (-) In the Money MaoXian Millionaire Now Peridot Capitalist (+) Quant Investor (+) StockAdvisors.com Smart Money Tracker Traders-Talk Wall Street Folly Wishing Wealth
From the looks of it the world is going to watch Netflix (+3.66%) movies on televisions powered by First Solar's (+4.91%) panels for the foreseeable future. These two stocks are the only S&P 500 names gaining amid the 2.50% decline this morning. The decline is not surprising, following Japan's 10.55% sell-off and general global anxiety for a variety of reasons: civil unrest, sovereign debt, earthquakes, a tsunami and potential nuclear catastrophe... take your pick.
For additional perspective we took a look at some of the more significant natural and man made disasters over the last sixty years. Some of the events were admittedly "cherry-picked." Both the Chernobyl disaster in the Ukraine and Hurricane Katrina in the US resulted in comparatively minor loss of life, but the psychological and financial impacts were perhaps more significant.
As shown, the performance following such events is mixed. Hurrican Katrina had relatively little impact on stocks, whereas Chernobyl resulted in a 3.1% decline over the following week. On average the S&P 500 is down 2.75% over the following six months; excluding the Myanmar cyclone and the 2008 Chinese earthquake stocks gain an average of 3.48%.
Bloggers are still mostly bullish.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:
24/7 Wall St (-) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (+) Elliot Wave Lives On (+) Fallond Stock Picks (-) Learning Curve (-) In the Money MaoXian Millionaire Now Peridot Capitalist (N) Quant Investor (+) StockAdvisors.com Smart Money Tracker Traders-Talk Wall Street Folly Wishing Wealth
The Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll is a survey of the web's most prominent investment bloggers, asking "What is your outlook on the S&P 500 for the next 30 days?" Conducted on a weekly basis, the poll is sent to participants each Thursday, and the results are released on Ticker Sense each Monday. The goal of this poll is to gain a consensus view on the market from the top investment bloggers -- a community that continues to grow as a valued source of investment insight. © Copyright 2015 Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll
Ticker Sense was founded and developed by analysts at Birinyi Associates. Birinyi Associates continues to own and manage all content.
