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Bloggers are primarily bullish after the holiday weekend.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:
24/7 Wall St BullBear Trading (N) Carl Futia (+) Crossing Wall Street Dash of Insight (-) Elliot Wave Lives On (+) Fallond Stock Picks Learning Curve In the Money MaoXian Peridot Capitalist (N) Quant Investor StockAdvisors.com Smart Money Tracker (+) Traders-Talk Wall Street Folly Wishing Wealth
Are you leaving early today? We analyzed S&P 500 performance the day before the Memorial Day holiday weekend going back to 2000. Not surprisingly it appears that traders head out early to get a start on the three-day weekend.
On average, from noon to close the day before Memorial Day weekend the S&P 500 falls 23 basis points and is negative in 64% of the instances.
Looking at our short-term OBOS model, we see that the market and the majority of the sectors have moved lower vs their 12-day average and trading envelope. The discretionary sector (RTH) has had the most drastic negative movement in the short-term. The two sectors that have fought the trend are energy (XLE) and telecom (IVZ).
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Since the beginning of 2009, the fundamental analysts covering the financial sector appear to have been a lagging indicator. Since the sector peak in April 2010, financial stocks have done relatively little. The analysts cannot seem to make up their minds either, with net upgrades to downgrades remaining flat.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:
24/7 Wall St Carl Futia (+) Crossing Wall Street Dash of Insight (N) Elliot Wave Lives On (+) Fallond Stock Picks (-) Learning Curve In the Money MaoXian Peridot Capitalist (-) Quant Investor (N) StockAdvisors.com Smart Money Tracker (+) Traders-Talk Wall Street Folly Wishing Wealth (+)
Going into Friday's trading day, financials and energy are below thier trading envelope. Health care, staples, discretionary, utilites and telecom sectors are "overbought" (above thier trading envelope). Staples and health care are within 2% of the most "overbought" level in the past twelve months; while utilites are at thier most "overbought" level.
For a very detailed explanation of our sector timing model please click here.
The ETF industry continued its strong growth in April. Total assets rose 5.8% to $1.1B.
There were 42 new ETF issues in April, making it the third busiest month on record, eclipsing March’s total of 37 (there have already been nine added in May bringing the current total up to 1,212).
In April, $22.2B of new capital flowed into the ETF market, the strongest month since September of 2010. The month of April takes the year-to -date inflow total to $50.9B
In relation to mutual funds (ex money market funds), ETF assets have grown 12.6% this year vs mutual funds 10.5% growth. Currently the ETF industry is 12.1% the size of mutual funds $8.5 trillion in assets.
Now were not saying there has been a top in gasoline, but the most recent peak does look pretty similar to the July 2008 peak.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:
24/7 Wall St (-) Carl Futia (+) Crossing Wall Street Dash of Insight (+) Elliot Wave Lives On (+) Fallond Stock Picks (-) Learning Curve (-) In the Money MaoXian Millionaire Now Peridot Capitalist (-) Quant Investor (N) StockAdvisors.com Smart Money Tracker Traders-Talk (N) Wall Street Folly Wishing Wealth
The Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll is a survey of the web's most prominent investment bloggers, asking "What is your outlook on the S&P 500 for the next 30 days?" Conducted on a weekly basis, the poll is sent to participants each Thursday, and the results are released on Ticker Sense each Monday. The goal of this poll is to gain a consensus view on the market from the top investment bloggers -- a community that continues to grow as a valued source of investment insight. © Copyright 2015 Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll
Ticker Sense was founded and developed by analysts at Birinyi Associates. Birinyi Associates continues to own and manage all content.
