Ticker Sense

Reuters: How to Play the Fed’s Tapering Timeline (with data from Birinyi Associates)

 

Laszlo Birinyi on Investment Strategy, Stock Market

Click here to watch the video.

June 24th Blogger Sentiment Poll

Only 12.5% of bloggers are bullish which is the lowest level on record (since July 2006).  Second only to 13.2% in March 2007 and 14.3% in September 2011.

Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants: 

24/7 Wall St (-) The Aleph Blog (-) Biiwii (-) BullBear Trading (N) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (N) Dividend Growth Investor (N) Elliot Wave Lives On (+) Expected Returns  Fallond Stock Picks  Global Economic Intersection (N) GEI – Investing Blog (-) Humble Student of the Markets (N) In the Money  Learning Curve (-) MaoXian  Night Owl Trader (-) The Mess That Greenspan Made   Peridot Capitalist (N) Prometheus Market Insight  PUG Stock Market Analysis (N) Quant Investor (N) Shanky’s Tech Blog (-) Short Takes (N) Smart Money Tracker (-) StockAdvisors.com  Traders-Talk  ValuePlays  Wall St. Cheat Sheet  Wall Street Sector Selector  Wishing Wealth  Zentrader (-)

Laszlo Birinyi on Bloomberg TV

Laszlo Birinyi will be on Bloomberg Television tomorrow afternoon at 3pm EDT. 

Most Major Firms Expect Fed to Begin Taper This Fall

Prior to the Fed announcements today, we searched our database of recent economist comments to see what they were saying about the possibility of the Fed tapering. It seems most think that any Fed action will begin sometime this fall or early winter.

Pandora's box? Algos for the retail investor...

Equametrics

June 17th Blogger Sentiment Poll

Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants: 

24/7 Wall St (-) The Aleph Blog (-) Biiwii (-) BullBear Trading (+) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (N) Dividend Growth Investor (N) Elliot Wave Lives On (+) Expected Returns  Fallond Stock Picks  Global Economic Intersection (N) GEI – Investing Blog (-) Humble Student of the Markets (N) In the Money  Learning Curve (-) MaoXian  Night Owl Trader  The Mess That Greenspan Made  Peridot Capitalist (-) Prometheus Market Insight  PUG Stock Market Analysis (N) Quant Investor (-) Shanky’s Tech Blog (N) Short Takes (+) Smart Money Tracker (+) StockAdvisors.com  Traders-Talk  ValuePlays  Wall St. Cheat Sheet  Wall Street Sector Selector  Wishing Wealth (+) Zentrader (-)

Weekend Read: "Behavioral Portfolio Management"

This week's interesting read comes from C. Thomas Howard of the University of Denver.   Below is the abstract:

Behavioral Portfolio Management (BPM) is presented as a superior way to make investment decisions. Underlying BPM is the dynamic market interplay between emotional crowds and behavioral-data investors. BPM’s first basic principle is that emotional crowds dominate the determination of both prices and volatility, with fundamentals playing a small role. The second basic principle is that behavioral-data investors earn superior returns. I present the evidence supporting these first two principles. The third basic principle is that investment risk is the chance of underperformance. It is important to distinguish between emotions and investment risk so that good decisions are made. In order to achieve the best results using BPM, investment professionals should redirect their own emotions, harness the market’s emotions, and mitigate the impact of client emotions on their portfolio.

Click here for the full paper.

Sector Rotation?

In a follow up to our previous monthly commentary¹ and recent strategy bulletin,² we updated our charts of the sectors' relative strength versus the S&P 500.

As we noted, the traditional "cyclical" sectors were strengthing after the market pullback in April.

Many of the "defensive" sectors peaked in the same time frame.

Analyzing the price change from the beginning of the year to 4/18 and from 4/18 to current a similar trend emerges.

¹ "Reminiscences Newsletter". Birinyi Associates, Inc. June 2013. pg 3.

² "Cyclicals Gaining Momentum?". Birinyi Associates, Inc. 5/8/13. 10-S-53.

EIA Projects More Recoverable Oil Reserves

EIA estimates 10% more recoverable oil reserves worldwide.