Ticker Sense

S&P 500 Stocks: Low P/E & High Growth

This morning we ran a quick and simple value screen on the S&P 500 which ended up yielding some surprising names.  To start we looked for stocks whose trailing and estimated P/E ratios are less than 10 (there were about 45 names on that list).  To further pair down we then looked for stocks where the estimated long-term growth is greater than 10.  That list of 23 stocks is highlighted below.  (Long-term growth typically refers to expected annual increase in operating earnings over the next three to five years.)

Chevron and Diamond Offshore stick out because they have the highest growth estimates.  Micron has by far the lowest P/E ratios with Ford and Teradyne close behind.  

 

Largest S&P 500 Movers on 10/13/08

After yesterday's unprecedented move in the US markets there were, surprisingly, several stocks that were down.  The largest percentage gainers and losers are highlighted below, but there was also a direct correlation between the largest movers yesterday and other group of stocks, suggesting further price action.  Subscribe to Birinyi's Mini-Institutional service for more detailed information.

Trading Earnings

As part of a new earnings season series Birinyi Associates will publish analysis of all the important S&P 500 stocks' earnings estimates and how they trade after reporting. Johnson and Johnson reports tomorrow morning, how does it typically trade after a report?  Do listed companies that beat before the open and gap up 5% continue higher or sell off during the trading day?  Instead of spending hours modeling EPS estimates, Birinyi Associates listens to the market and provides trading strategies rooted in historical fact.

Intel reports tomorrow after the close, traders should use the same strategy regardless of the report (beat or miss). 

These stocks typically gap down 5% or more on an earnings miss and trade lower throughout the day.  Subscribe to Birinyi's mini-institutional service to receive daily and weekly updates on upcoming earnings and how to prepare your portfolio ahead of time.

Stocks With Largest Moves Since 9/29

September 29th was the day we view as having begun the market mess that characterized the beginning of the month.  The S&P 500 was down 8.8% that day, sending the market into a further tailspin over the next two weeks.  The markets were up only one day out of ten, and the S&P was down over 25%.  Every member of the S&P 500 was lower during that period, below we highlight the stocks that were down the least and those that were down the most.  CME posted the smallest decline, down only 1.47%, while GGP was down the most at 71.73% after cutting its dividend.  With many expecting the market to snap back very quickly, some of these stocks could emerge as market leaders, while others may recoup losses.

 

Weekly Review: Stocks Up and Down on Volume

After the worst week in stocks, at least since the Dow 30 has been calculated in its present form, we highlight below some of the S&P 1500 stocks that were actually up last week.  As shown, there were no stocks that were up on above average weekly volume, but there were several stocks that were up on below average weekly volume.  The stocks shown below as being down were not necessarily down the most, but were down the most out of the stocks trading above average weekly volume.

 

Crazy AIG Volume (Update)

As we move in on the close AIG's volume is reaching upwards of 1.1bln shares.  The average trade size is 471 shares, and the number of trades totals over 2.3 million in the stock on the day.  By comparison, the only other current Dow stock to have ever traded over 1bln shares in a day was MSFT on its IPO, March 13th, 1986 and even that is split adjusted.

Looking deeper at the volume, over 400mln shares have been listed on the ADF (alternative display facility) meaning they were traded through ECNs,  320mln shares were traded on the NASDAQ, and 265mln shares on the NYSE Arca; only 105mln shares were traded on the NYSE.  It makes us wonder about computerized trading programs with only Intel's fastest in the driver's seat.

Weekly Review: S&P 1500 Stocks Up and Down on Volume

Below we highlight some of the week's activity looking at stocks that were up or down on heavy and light volume.

 

S&P 1500 Stocks Posting Large Moves During the Week

At the end of a short but volatile week we looked at some of the stocks that had large moves on above average volume (this week we omitted those stocks with light volume because it was a short week).  Below we show the stocks that were both up and down strongly, sorted on percent.  Many of the stocks that were up are either acquisition targets or smaller stocks, PMI for example where a 20% move equates to a $0.72 gain.  There were however real winners, most notably ICE, BKE and CBT.

On the right hand side, JOYG was down sharply on the week after missing earnings by 7 cents on Wednesday.  ABM was another notable decliner on huge volume after its 8 cent earnings miss wiped out a year's gain on a seemingly steady uptrend.

DJIA Member Trading Ranges

Below we highlight the 30 Dow members with respect to their various trading ranges.  After the recent volatility in the markets (S&P 500 +2.9% on Tuesday, -1.8% today) some of these stocks are on the move.  BAC had traded at its theoretical high of $34 and has declined over the last five days into it "normal" range.  XOM continues to show weakness as it is 4.7% below the lower end of its range while JNJ is approaching its theoretical high.

(Click on the image for a PDF version and explanation.)

Best and Worst Performing Stocks in the U.S. (year to date)

Below we highlight the best and worst performing US equities so far this year.  As shown, most of the winners fall under the "Micro-Cap" category, with WLT and MMR being the only gainers with over $1b in capitalization.  The losers include several former billion dollar companies, ABK and FMD probably the most notable.

MBRK, MiddleBrook Biopharmaceuticals, headquartered in Germantown, MD has been the best performing US stock this year, up 255%.  KERX, Keryx Pharmaceuticals, headquartered in New York, NY has been the worst performing US stock, down 94.5% year to date.